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Fiorentina – Pisa3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Fiorentina
1.75
Total xG
2.72
Pisa
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fiorentina | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +0.66 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Nicolò Fagioli on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 35% available) | ||
| Stefano Moreo on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Michel Aebischer not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Samuele Angori on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 43% available) |
Key factors
- Only 35% of the goal threat available for Fiorentina, with Nicoló Fagioli missing
- Only 44% of the goal threat available for Pisa, with Stefano Moreo, Michel Aebischer, and Samuele Angori missing
- Fiorentina averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Pisa's 3.2
Risks
- Pisa conceded an average of 1.80 goals per away game
- Pisa's goal scoring is stalling with only 0.6 goals recently compared to the season average of 0.8
All probabilities
Result
Fiorentina54%
Draw26%
Pisa19%
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw81%
Pisa or draw46%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Pisa: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Pisa: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Pisa: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Fiorentina 4-3-3 · Pisa 3-4-2-1
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 27 C. Ndour
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 29 D. Gnonto
Pisa
- 1 S. Scuffet
- 13 A. Primasso
- 4 A. Caracciolo
- 5 S. Canestrelli
- 72 S. Zanon
- 36 G. Piccinini
- 14 F. Loyola
- 7 M. Marcel Léris
- 11 I. Ferrah
- 17 E. Rao
- 8 F. Pittarello
Substitutes
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 25 A. Njie
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 19 T. Pontes Esteves
- 32 S. Moreo
- 33 A. Calabresi
- 44 D. Denoon
- 3 S. Angori
- 26 F. Coppola
- 10 M. Tramoni
- 21 ?. Vural
- 22 L. Loria
- 37 A. Petagna
- 98 A. Confente
- 29 O. Correia
- 55 G. Leone
- 24 Jacopo Frosali
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