Super League
Young Boys - Winterthur
02/14/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.0
1.1
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
7%3:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
57%
Draw
24%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
43%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Defensive Mismatch: Young Boys' solid home attack (1.85 goals/game) meets Winterthur's catastrophic away defense (4.11 goals conceded/game)
- Clear Favorite by Model: The pipeline prediction indicates a 57% probability of a home win and expected goals of 1.97 for Young Boys versus 1.08 for Winterthur
- Historical Dominance: Young Boys holds a strong record against Winterthur, including a 5-0 victory in their last meeting and a 10-3 goal difference in the last five encounters
Risk Factors
- Inconsistent Form: Both teams have identical and poor form in their last five games (LLWDL), which introduces a degree of unpredictability
- Short Rest Period: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
- Numerous Absences: Both sides are missing key players, which could affect team chemistry and performance, especially for Winterthur who are without the suspended S. Cueni
Overview
Young Boys (6th place, 33 points) host Winterthur (12th place, 14 points) at Stadion Wankdorf
The Super League match takes place on February 14, 2026, at 8:30 PM
For Young Boys, it's about keeping pace with the top teams, while Winterthur urgently needs points in the relegation battle
The mathematical analysis favors the home team with a 57% probability of winning
Form
Both teams have identical form in their last five competitive matches: LLWDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
In the league, Young Boys' form of WDLDW is slightly better than Winterthur's (LDLDL)
Both teams are looking for more consistency, having each won only one of their last five games
Statistics
Offensively, Young Boys are clearly superior with an average of 1.88 goals per game (Winterthur 1.17)
Defensively, the home team is also more stable, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Winterthur concedes 2.65
Winterthur's away weakness is particularly severe, with an average of 4.11 goals conceded per game on the road
In 18 of Young Boys' 24 matches, there were over 2.5 goals, while for Winterthur this was the case in 19 of 23 games
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Young Boys have the upper hand
The record is 2 wins for Young Boys, 1 win for Winterthur, and 2 draws
The goal difference of 10:3 is clearly in favor of the home team
The last meeting ended with a clear 5-0 victory for Young Boys
Key Players
For Young Boys, Christian Fassnacht with 13 season goals and 6 assists, and Chris Bedia with 12 goals and 3 assists lead the attack
For Winterthur, Andrin Hunziker is the most dangerous player with 8 season goals
Théo Golliard has also contributed 3 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Marvin Keller of Young Boys has kept 5 clean sheets in 24 games this season
Stefanos Kapino in goal for Winterthur is still waiting for his first clean sheet of the season after 23 appearances
Influences
The home advantage for Young Boys is statistically significant
They score an average of 1.85 goals at home, while Winterthur concedes an average of 4.11 goals away
Stadion Wankdorf has recently been the scene of high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals in the last five matches