Ligue 1
Olympique Lyonnais - Nice
02/15/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.2
1.2
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
8%3:1
6%1:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
24%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
61%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Drastic difference in form: Lyon comes into the match with five consecutive wins, while Nice's form is mixed at best
- Home fortress vs. away weakness: Lyon's defense is a force at home (0.7 goals conceded/game), while Nice is extremely vulnerable on the road (2.4 goals conceded/game)
- Statistical superiority: Lyon is superior in almost all relevant season statistics, and the prediction model favors them with a 55% win probability
Risk Factors
- Due to absences, Lyon only has about 68% of its seasonal goalscorers available
- Nice won the last head-to-head encounter, which could give them confidence
- Nice's attack has improved recently, currently scoring more goals (2.0) than their season average (1.2)
Overview
Olympique Lyonnais (3rd place, 42 points) host Nice (14th place, 23 points) at the Groupama Stadium
Ligue 1 match on February 15, 2026, 8:45 PM
Lyon are clear favorites and aim to solidify their position at the top, while Nice tries to move away from the relegation zone
Form
Olympique Lyonnais are in outstanding form with a perfect record from their last five matches (WWWWW)
They have achieved 5 consecutive wins
Nice has a mixed form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games (WWLDD)
The visitors are unbeaten in their last two games, but only managed two draws
Statistics
Lyon shows a strong attack, averaging 1.62 goals per game, which increases to 1.70 at home
Their defense is particularly impressive at home, conceding only 0.70 goals per game
Nice has a vulnerable defense, especially away, where they concede an average of 2.40 goals
Both teams scored in 14 of Nice's 21 league games this season
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Olympique Lyonnais has been the more dominant team with 3 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw
The goal difference also favors Lyon at 9:4
However, Nice won the most recent meeting 3-2
Key Players
Pavel Sulc is a key offensive player for Lyon with 9 season goals and 2 assists
Tyler Morton shines in midfield with a high season rating (7.19) as well as 2 goals and 2 assists
Corentin Tolisso also contributes a goal threat from midfield (3 goals, 1 assist)
For Nice, Sofiane Diop is the top scorer with 7 goals and 3 assists
Mohamed-Ali Cho has shown his form in recent games with 2 goals and 1 assist
Defender Jonathan Clauss is an important creator with 4 assists
Goalkeepers
Dominik Greif is in goal for Lyon, whose team has kept 11 clean sheets this season
Maxime Dupé is the goalkeeper for Nice, which has kept 3 clean sheets this season
The statistics clearly favor the home team's goalkeeper here
Influences
Lyon has a strong home advantage, conceding an average of just 0.7 goals per game at the Groupama Stadium
Nice's defensive weakness away from home is stark, with an average of 2.4 goals conceded per game on the road
Recent matches at Lyon's stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 2.8 goals per game