Match report →
Cagliari – Hellas Verona1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Cagliari
1.21
Total xG
2.40
Hellas Verona
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cagliari | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Michel Adopo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Adam Obert on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alessandro Deiola on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 25% available) | ||
| Kieron Bowie not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Antoine Bernede on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Martin Frese not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Rafik Belghali not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 90% of goal output missing (only 14% available) |
Key factors
- Only 26% of goal threat available for Cagliari, without Michel Adopo, Adam Obert, Alessandro Deiola
- Only 14% of goal threat available for Hellas Verona, without Kieron Bowie, Antoine Bernede, Martin Frese, Rafik Belghali
- Historical dominance: Cagliari are unbeaten in the last 4 head-to-heads (3 wins, 1 draw) with a 9:2 goal difference
Risks
- Tight prediction: The model calculates a balanced match with a 35% home win and 34% away win probability
- Vulnerable defense: Hellas Verona concede an average of 1.65 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
All probabilities
Result
Cagliari35%
Draw31%
Hellas Verona34%
Double chance
Cagliari or draw66%
Hellas Verona or draw65%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Hellas Verona: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Hellas Verona: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Cagliari 4-2-3-1 · Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1
Cagliari
- 23 B. Radunović
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 22 R. Kofler
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 27 J. Liteta
- 6 H. Winks
- 17 M. Felici
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 39 A. Fadera
- 31 P. Mendy
Hellas Verona
- 34 S. Perilli
- 37 N. Calabrese
- 48 S. Korac
- 5 A. Edmundsson
- 71 D. De Battisti
- 23 N. Lella
- 20 G. Kastanos
- 14 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
- 21 A. Harroui
- 9 A. Sarr
- 79 K. Sezonienko
Substitutes
- 70 D. Maldini
- 4 A. Romano
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 14 A. Deiola
- 33 A. Obert
- 12 A. Sherri
- 1 E. Caprile
- 8 M. Adopo
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 36 N. Grandu
- 32 I. Sulev
- 30 A. Akakriki
- 35 A. Sugamele
- 19 S. Mulattieri
- 1 N. Leali
- 44 E. Iannoni
- 70 F. Cham
- 22 G. Toniolo
- 24 A. Bernede
- 4 G. Zappa
- 11 M. Compagnon
- 17 A. Borgne
- 33 N. Tagne
- 35 S. Cerbone
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