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Coppa Italia

Cagliari - Hellas Verona

09/03/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Cagliari
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Hellas Verona
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
CAGHV

Cagliari

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Michel Adopo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Adam Obert on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Alessandro Deiola on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 25% available)

Hellas Verona

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Kieron Bowie not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Antoine Bernede on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Martin Frese not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Rafik Belghali not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
90% of goal output missing (only 14% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Hellas Verona: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Hellas Verona: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

31%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Only 26% of goal threat available for Cagliari, without Michel Adopo, Adam Obert, Alessandro Deiola
  • Only 14% of goal threat available for Hellas Verona, without Kieron Bowie, Antoine Bernede, Martin Frese, Rafik Belghali
  • Historical dominance: Cagliari are unbeaten in the last 4 head-to-heads (3 wins, 1 draw) with a 9:2 goal difference
Risk Factors
  • Tight prediction: The model calculates a balanced match with a 35% home win and 34% away win probability
  • Vulnerable defense: Hellas Verona concede an average of 1.65 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
Overview

Cagliari face Hellas Verona in the Coppa Italia

Match at Sardegna Arena on September 3, 2026, 9:00 PM

Cup tie without league standings context

A highly competitive knockout match is anticipated

Form

Cagliari display strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games

The form curve is WWWWL

Hellas Verona are winless in 5 matches with 3 draws and 2 losses

The form curve is DLDLD

The form trend favors the home side

Statistics

Cagliari average 1.05 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded per game

Hellas Verona show defensive vulnerability with 1.61 goals conceded per match

The visitors failed to score in 20 matches this season

Head-to-Head

Historical dominance for Cagliari with 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 meetings

Goal difference of 9:2 in favor of Cagliari

The last head-to-head match ended in a dominant 4:0 home win for Cagliari

Key Players

Mattia Felici has 2 goals and 1 assist with a 6.74 rating

Paul Mendy contributed 2 goals this season

Andrias Edmundsson stabilizes the defense with an average rating of 6.90

Goalkeepers

Boris Radunović starts in goal for Cagliari

Simone Perilli is between the line for Hellas Verona

Cagliari achieved 8 clean sheets this season while Verona kept 6

Influences

Home advantage for Cagliari at the Sardegna Arena on grass

Stadium average is 2.4 goals per game

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