Match report →
Parma – Cremonese0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Parma
1.20
Total xG
1.94
Cremonese
0.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Parma | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −0.56 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Adrián Bernabé not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Emanuele Valeri not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Enrico Delprato on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Mandela Keita not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 72% of goal output missing (only 35% available) | ||
| Federico Bonazzoli not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jamie Vardy not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matteo Bianchetti on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Filippo Terracciano not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Parma holds a squad impact advantage: Parma retains 35% of its usual active goal share, while Cremonese plummets to 0%
- Significant rest advantage for the visitors: Parma plays with only 3 days of recovery since their last game, while Cremonese has enjoyed 15 days of rest
- Low historical scoring: Parma has yet to score a single goal against Cremonese across their head-to-head encounters
Risks
- Severe goal-threat deficit for Parma: Missing Adrián Bernabé and Emanuele Valeri leaves only 35% of the team's seasonal goal share available
- Total attacking collapse for Cremonese: Without Federico Bonazzoli, Jamie Vardy, and Filippo Terracciano, active goal share plummets to 0%
- Lack of offensive output: Both sides struggled recently, with Parma averaging 3.6 shots on target and Cremonese averaging 3.8
All probabilities
Result
Parma45%
Draw34%
Cremonese21%
Double chance
Parma or draw79%
Cremonese or draw55%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:0
16%
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Parma: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Cremonese: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Parma 4-3-3 · Cremonese 4-2-3-1
Parma
- 30 G. Daffara
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 5 L. Valenti
- 29 F. Carboni
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 7 O. Diallo Thiao
- 23 N. Elphege
- 20 M. Frigan
Cremonese
- 22 F. Agazzi
- 38 A. Vogliacco
- 33 A. Grassi
- 13 F. Moreira Pacheco
- 21 Y. Rocchetti
- 8 S. Lottici Tessadri
- 20 S. Pontisso
- 10 A. Ličina
- 14 T. Berti
- 71 S. Elia
- 19 M. Nasti
Substitutes
- 19 E. Toure
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 14 E. Valeri
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 16 M. Keita
- 37 M. Troilo
- 11 P. Almqvist
- 40 E. Corvi
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 9 J. Romero
- 25 T. De Martis
- 75 A. Mazzocchi
- 76 S. Lontani
- 71 K. Pajsar
- 2 M. Thorsby
- 11 M. Đurić
- 90 F. Bonazzoli
- 15 M. Bianchetti
- 25 D. Lordkipanidze
- 27 J. Vandeputte
- 5 S. Luperto
- 16 F. Gerli
- 9 M. De Luca
- 12 M. Festa
- 59 Riccardo Liberali
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