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Coppa Italia

Parma - Cremonese

09/01/2026, 04:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Parma
1.2
Total xG
1.9
Cremonese
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:0

16%

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PARCRE

Parma

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.10
AdriƔn BernabƩ not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Emanuele Valeri not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Enrico Delprato on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Mandela Keita not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
72% of goal output missing (only 35% available)

Cremonese

Attack weakness (0.5x league average)
-0.56
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (1.6 vs 1 season average)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Federico Bonazzoli not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists)
Jamie Vardy not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists)
Matteo Bianchetti on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Filippo Terracciano not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Parma: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Cremonese: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 13)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

34%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Parma holds a squad impact advantage: Parma retains 35% of its usual active goal share, while Cremonese plummets to 0%
  • Significant rest advantage for the visitors: Parma plays with only 3 days of recovery since their last game, while Cremonese has enjoyed 15 days of rest
  • Low historical scoring: Parma has yet to score a single goal against Cremonese across their head-to-head encounters
Risk Factors
  • Severe goal-threat deficit for Parma: Missing AdriĆ”n BernabĆ© and Emanuele Valeri leaves only 35% of the team's seasonal goal share available
  • Total attacking collapse for Cremonese: Without Federico Bonazzoli, Jamie Vardy, and Filippo Terracciano, active goal share plummets to 0%
  • Lack of offensive output: Both sides struggled recently, with Parma averaging 3.6 shots on target and Cremonese averaging 3.8
Overview

Parma host Cremonese at the Stadio Ennio Tardini

Coppa Italia match on September 1, 2026, 6:00 PM

A competitive cup tie with everything on the line

Form

Parma form: LWWLL

Parma recorded 2 wins and 3 losses recently

Cremonese form: LWWLW

Cremonese registered 3 wins and 2 losses recently

Statistics

Parma scored 28 goals in 38 season matches, averaging 0.74 goals per game

Cremonese scored 32 goals in 38 matches, averaging 0.84 per game

Parma conceded 1.21 goals on average, while Cremonese conceded 1.50

At home, Parma average 0.73 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches

No wins for Parma, 1 win for Cremonese, and 1 draw

The last match ended in a 0-2 win for Cremonese on March 21, 2026

Overall goals in direct duels stand at 0-2 against Parma

Key Players

Nesta Elphege scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Christian OrdĆ³Ć±ez scored 1 goal with a season rating of 6.52

Lautaro Valenti anchors the defense with an average rating of 6.83

Alberto Grassi made 30 appearances this season, averaging a 6.67 rating

Simone Lottici Tessadri has made 1 appearance this season

Alessandro Vogliacco starts in defense for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Giovanni Daffara is in goal for Parma

Federico Agazzi is the goalkeeper for Cremonese

Parma recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Cremonese registered 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Stadio Ennio Tardini

Parma concede 1.14 goals per game on average at home

Cremonese concede 1.65 goals per game on average away from home

Historically, matches at the Tardini average 2.0 goals per game

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