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Coppa Italia

Udinese - Venezia

09/02/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Udinese
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Venezia
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
UDIVEN

Udinese

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.02
Arthur Atta not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Thomas Kristensen not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Hassane Kamara on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Jakub Piotrowski on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

Venezia

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+1.05
Attack weakness (0.51x league average)
-0.67
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.18
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Udinese: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Udinese with Keinan Davis starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (20/8 games, last 29)

  • 3
    Udinese: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Udinese enters as the favorite with a 51% home win probability calculated by the model
  • Venezia was highly dominant in recent matches, averaging 57% possession and 4.2 shots on target
  • Udinese has to play without Arthur Atta, who is not in the lineup despite having 5 goals and 3 assists
Risk Factors
  • Venezia concedes an average of 5.0 goals per away match
  • Udinese averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match recently
  • Limited data availability for Venezia's player statistics
Overview

Udinese hosts Venezia at the Dacia Arena

Coppa Italia match on September 2, 2026, 6:00 PM

Knockout tie in the Italian Cup

The home side enters as favorites with a 51% win probability calculated by the model

Form

Udinese holds a form of LLWDW and recently won 3-2 away against Monza

A total of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their form summary

Venezia shows a form of DLWLL with two consecutive losses at the end

The visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Udinese averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per match

Udinese managed 11 clean sheets this season

Venezia scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded 1.67 goals in 3 matches

Udinese's goal production is currently stalling at 1.0 compared to their season average of 1.26

Venezia averages 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.6

Head-to-Head

Balanced historical record with 2 head-to-head matches

Each team has recorded 1 win

The last direct encounter ended in a 3-2 home win for Udinese on February 1, 2025

A total of 5-5 goals scored across these meetings

Key Players

Udinese relies on Keinan Davis with 10 goals and 4 assists in 30 games (rating 7.04)

Oumar Solet contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in 35 matches (rating 7.12)

Christian Kabasele has 3 goals in 30 appearances with a rating of 6.78

For Venezia, Lorenzo Montipò is featured with a 7.19 rating across 2 games

Thórir Jóhann Helgason holds a 6.29 rating in 2 matches

Armel Bella-Kotchap has recorded 1 game played

Goalkeepers

Bartosz Mrozek starts in goal for Udinese, who kept 11 clean sheets this season

Lorenzo Montipò plays in goal for Venezia, with the visitors recording 2 clean sheets so far

Influences

Udinese averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded at home

The Dacia Arena proves to be a low-scoring venue with an average of 1.4 goals per match

Venezia conceded 5 goals in their only away game so far

The match will be played on natural grass

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