Match report →
Udinese – Venezia2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Udinese
1.50
Total xG
2.36
Venezia
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Udinese | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +1.05 | |
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −0.67 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Arthur Atta not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Thomas Kristensen not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Hassane Kamara on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jakub Piotrowski on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Udinese enters as the favorite with a 51% home win probability calculated by the model
- Venezia was highly dominant in recent matches, averaging 57% possession and 4.2 shots on target
- Udinese has to play without Arthur Atta, who is not in the lineup despite having 5 goals and 3 assists
Risks
- Venezia concedes an average of 5.0 goals per away match
- Udinese averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match recently
- Limited data availability for Venezia's player statistics
All probabilities
Result
Udinese51%
Draw29%
Venezia20%
Double chance
Udinese or draw80%
Venezia or draw49%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
11%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Udinese: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Udinese with Keinan Davis starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (20/8 games, last 29)
- Udinese: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Udinese 3-4-2-1 · Venezia 3-5-2
Udinese
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 13 N. Bertola
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 28 O. Solet Bomawoko
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 8 J. Karlström
- 38 L. Miller
- 20 J. Arizala
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 15 V. Bayo
- 9 K. Davis
Venezia
- 96 L. Montipò
- 95 A. Gomes Furtado
- 17 A. Bella-Kotchap
- 25 R. Halhal
- 14 T. Rendall Correia
- 21 T. Helgason
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 19 S. Sohm
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 29 L. Lauberbach
- 7 A. Rrahmani
Substitutes
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 79 D. Pejičić
- 7 I. Gueye
- 24 J. Piotrowski
- 11 H. Kamara
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 45 G. Vinciati
- 99 E. Piana
- 45 A. Adams
- 8 L. Dabo
- 15 J. Nunes Jesus
- 70 P. Mazzocchi
- 56 K. Lisman
- 5 R. Haps
- 6 G. Busio
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 23 M. Grandi
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 36 L. Berardi
- 55 S. Panada
- 28 A. Pozzi
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