Ligue 1
Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg
02/14/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.5
2.0
1:2
9%2:1
7%2:2
7%1:3
6%2:3
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
24%
Away Win
47%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
68%
Under 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
53%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
69%
No
31%
Key Factors
- Model favoritism: The mathematical analysis favors Strasbourg with a 47% win probability compared to 29% for Marseille
- Contrasting form curves: Marseille's recent form is weak (1 win in 5), while Strasbourg has been performing strongly, especially in the league (4 wins in 5)
- Offensive potential: Both teams have dangerous attackers, and the model predicts a high probability of 69% for both teams to score
Risk Factors
- Defensive absences for Marseille: The absence of defenders L. Balerdi Rossa and N. Aguerd could weaken the home team's defense
- Key player doubtful for Strasbourg: The potential absence of G. Doué, a key defender and provider, would be a significant loss for the visitors
- Historical draw risk: The head-to-head record is very balanced, with three of the last five encounters ending in a draw
Overview
Olympique Marseille (4th place, 39 points) host Strasbourg (8th place, 30 points) at the Stade Vélodrome
Ligue 1 match on February 14, 2026, 5:00 PM
A clash in the upper half of the table, where Marseille aims to keep pace with the top, while Strasbourg looks to solidify their position
Form
Olympique Marseille form (all competitions): LWLDL
The team has won only one of their last five matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Strasbourg form (all competitions): DWWLL
The visitors have been slightly more stable with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games
In the league, Strasbourg's form is significantly stronger with WWLWW
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Marseille has a strong attack, averaging 2.19 goals per game, which increases to 2.25 at home
Strasbourg scores an average of 1.62 goals per game, and a respectable 1.55 away
Defensively, Marseille is solid in their own stadium (0.92 goals conceded per game)
Strasbourg's defense is vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 1.82 goals
Head-to-Head
The last five head-to-head matches have been extremely balanced
Both Marseille and Strasbourg have won one game each, with three draws
The goal difference is also perfectly even at 5:5
The last encounter was won 2-1 by Marseille away from home
Key Players
For Marseille, Mason Greenwood is the top scorer with 13 season goals, followed by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang with 6 goals
For Strasbourg, Joaquín Panichelli is the most dangerous attacker with 11 goals
Martial Godo is in strong form and has already scored 6 goals this season
Goalkeepers
Gerónimo Rulli is in goal for Marseille and has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Strasbourg's goal is guarded by Mike Penders; his team has kept a total of 7 clean sheets
Influences
An average of 2.8 goals are scored per game at the Stade Vélodrome
In 60% of the last matches at this venue, there were over 2.5 goals
Marseille is very strong at home, averaging 2.25 goals scored per game while conceding only 0.92
Both teams are accustomed to playing on a natural grass surface