Ligue 1
Metz - Auxerre
02/15/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
11%2:1
8%0:1
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
31%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Clash of weaknesses: Metz's vulnerable defense (2.19 goals conceded/game) meets Auxerre's harmless attack (0.67 goals/game)
- Home advantage as a decisive factor: In a match between two teams in poor form, home advantage could be the deciding factor for Metz, which is also supported by the mathematical prediction with a 40% win probability
- Extreme goal drought for Auxerre: Auxerre has not scored a single goal in the last five games and failed to score in 12 of 21 season matches
Risk Factors
- Weakened attack for Auxerre: Only 57% of their seasonal goal threat is available to the team, further hampering their already weak attack
- Historical record: Metz has not won any of the last five head-to-head matches against Auxerre (3 losses, 2 draws)
- High susceptibility to errors in defense: Both defensive lines are vulnerable, especially Metz with 46 goals conceded and Auxerre with 2.83 goals conceded per away game
Overview
Relegation battle in Ligue 1: 18th-placed Metz (13 points) hosts 16th-placed Auxerre (14 points) at the Stade Saint-Symphorien
The match takes place on February 15, 2026, 5:15 PM
For both teams, this is about crucial points in the fight to stay in the league
Form
Both teams are in disastrous form and have been winless for five games
Metz's form is DLLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
Auxerre comes into the match with a form of LLLDD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) and has not scored a single goal in their last five games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Metz has the weakest defense in the league with 46 goals conceded in 21 games (average of 2.19 per game)
Offensively, they score an average of 1.0 goal per game
Auxerre has one of the least threatening attacks with only 14 goals in 21 games (Ă 0.67) and has failed to score in 12 matches already
Away from home, Auxerre's defense is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.83 goals
Head-to-Head
In the head-to-head comparison, Auxerre has the upper hand
In the last five encounters, there were three wins for Auxerre and two draws, with Metz failing to win any match
The last meeting ended in a 3-1 victory for Auxerre
Key Players
For Metz, all eyes are on Gauthier Hein, who is the team's top scorer with 6 goals and 4 assists
Forward Habib Diallo has contributed 4 goals so far this season
For Auxerre, Lassine Sinayoko is the most dangerous attacker with 6 goals this season
Sinaly Diomandé is showing rising form in defense
Goalkeepers
In goal for Metz is Jonathan Fischer, who has kept 4 clean sheets this season
For Auxerre, Donovan LĂ©on is the goalkeeper and has managed to keep a clean sheet 5 times so far
Influences
Metz has the home advantage at the Stade Saint-Symphorien
Statistics from the last five home games show a high goal average of 3.2 per game, which is in stark contrast to the current offensive weakness of both teams