Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain - Metz
02/21/2026, 08:05 PM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.4
1.0
2:0
10%2:1
10%1:1
9%3:0
8%3:1
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
68%
Draw
19%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
66%
Under 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
44%
Under 3.5
56%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
32%
No Draw
81%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Difference in class: PSG (2nd), a title contender, faces relegation candidate Metz (18th)
- Home strength vs. away weakness: PSG scores 2.25 goals at home while conceding only 0.33, whereas Metz concedes 2.58 goals away
- Historical dominance: PSG has won all of the last 5 head-to-head matches, with a goal difference of 15:4
Risk Factors
- Missing offensive power for PSG: The absence of key players like Ousmane Dembélé (8 goals, 4 assists) could reduce their attacking prowess
- Goals conceded in H2H: Although PSG dominates, Metz has scored in the last two encounters, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities
Overview
Paris Saint Germain (2nd place, 51 points) hosts Metz (18th place, 13 points) at the Parc des Princes
Ligue 1 match on February 21, 2026, 9:05 PM
A clear clash between a title contender and a relegation candidate
Form
Paris Saint Germain form: DWWLW
In the last five matches, there have been 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Their form is therefore positive
Metz form: LLLDL
Metz has not won a single game in the last five matches, with 1 draw and 4 losses
Their form trend is clearly pointing downwards
Statistics
PSG's offense is extremely strong with an average of 2.23 goals per game, and even 2.25 at home
Metz, on the other hand, has one of the weakest defenses in the league with 2.23 goals conceded per game, rising to 2.58 away
Defensively, PSG is very stable, conceding only 0.33 goals on average at home
Metz's attack scores an average of only 1.0 goal per away game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct duels, Paris Saint Germain clearly dominated with 5 wins
Metz could not win a single game, and there were no draws
The goal difference is clearly in favor of PSG at 15:4
The last encounter was won by PSG with a score of 3:2
Key Players
For Paris Saint Germain, Gonçalo Ramos (4 season goals) and Kang-in Lee (2 goals, 2 assists) could be decisive
Achraf Hakimi is also a goal-scoring threat as a defender with 2 goals
For Metz, Jean-Philippe Gbamin (1 goal, 1 assist) and Boubacar Traoré (1 goal) are important pillars of the team
Alpha Touré has recently shown improving form
Goalkeepers
The Paris Saint Germain goalkeeper has contributed to 11 clean sheets this season
Metz's goalkeeper, Jonathan Fischer, was part of a team that kept 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
The home advantage for Paris Saint Germain at the Parc des Princes is enormous
They score an average of 2.25 goals at home and concede only 0.33
Recent matches at the stadium have been high-scoring with an average of 3.6 goals
In 4 of the last 5 home games, there were more than 2.5 goals