Ligue 1
Brest - Olympique Marseille
02/20/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.6
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
30%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Marseille's superior offense (2.18 goals/game) meets a vulnerable Brest defense (1.55 goals conceded/game)
- The historical record clearly favors Marseille, who won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches with a goal difference of 14:3
- Tactical contrast: Marseille's attack-minded style (5.4 shots on target/game) against Brest's counter-attacking approach (39% possession)
Risk Factors
- Marseille's defense is out of form, conceding an average of 2.6 goals in recent games, well above their season average of 1.43
- Brest is very stable defensively at home, allowing only an average of 1.08 goals per game at the Stade Francis-Le Ble
- The visitors are winless in their last four games, showing a negative form trend
Overview
Brest (12th place, 27 points) hosts Olympique Marseille (4th place, 40 points) at the Stade Francis-Le Ble
The Ligue 1 match is on February 20, 2026, at 8:45 PM
Marseille aims to solidify its position in the top 4, while Brest is in the middle of the table
The mathematical analysis slightly favors the visitors with 38% probability, compared to 32% for a home win
Form
Brest's form across all competitions (last 5 games): L L D W D
They have secured 1 win, 2 draws, and suffered 2 losses
Olympique Marseille's form across all competitions (last 5 games): W L D L D
Their record is identical with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches
However, Brest is unbeaten in their last two games, while Marseille is winless in their last four
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Olympique Marseille has a significantly stronger attack, averaging 2.18 goals per game, while Brest averages 1.32
Defensively, Marseille is slightly more stable with 1.32 goals conceded per game compared to Brest's 1.55
Brest is much stronger defensively at home, conceding only 1.08 goals per home game
Marseille is very dangerous on the road, scoring an average of 2.11 goals in away matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Marseille has a clearly dominant record
The visitors won 4 of these matches, while Brest was victorious only once
The goal difference is 14:3 in favor of Olympique Marseille
The last meeting ended in a decisive 3-0 victory for Marseille
Key Players
Romain Del Castillo is a key player for Brest with 7 goals and 2 assists
Ludovic Ajorque stands out as a playmaker with 3 goals and 7 assists
Kamory Doumbia has also contributed 5 goals this season
For Marseille, Mason Greenwood is the standout performer with 14 goals and 4 assists
Amine Gouiri has 5 goals and 2 assists to his name
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg is an important organizer in midfield with 3 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Grégoire Coudert is in goal for Brest
His team has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Gerónimo Rulli is the goalkeeper for Olympique Marseille
His team has also managed to keep a clean sheet 6 times this season
Influences
Brest shows a strong defensive performance at their home ground, Stade Francis-Le Ble
They concede an average of only 1.08 goals per game at home
The last five matches at this stadium have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in only one of these five matches