Ligue 1
Auxerre - Rennes
02/22/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.6
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
29%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Rennes' defensive vulnerability: With an average of 2.88 goals conceded per away game, Rennes has one of the weakest away defenses in the league
- Offensive quality gap: Rennes scores an average of 1.55 goals per game, more than double that of Auxerre (0.77)
- Mathematical prediction: The model favors Rennes with a 45% win probability and gives them a 74% chance of not losing the match (win or draw)
Risk Factors
- Reduced offensive power for Auxerre: The home team has only 59% of its seasonal goal threat available
- Rennes missing key players: The visitors are without key players, leaving only 65% of their usual goal threat on the pitch
- Auxerre's poor finishing: The home team averages only 1.4 shots on target per game, making it difficult to exploit Rennes' defensive weaknesses
Overview
Auxerre (16th place, 17 points) hosts Rennes (7th place, 34 points) at the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Ligue 1 match on February 22, 2026, 3:00 PM
This is a crucial match for Auxerre in the relegation battle, while Rennes aims to stay in touch with the European spots
Form
Auxerre form: L-L-D-D-W
In the last five games, they have recorded one win, two draws, and two losses
The form trend is pointing upwards after being unbeaten in the last three games
Rennes form: D-L-L-L-W
The visitors have managed one win, one draw, and three losses from their last five matches
Both teams won their most recent game
Statistics
Auxerre has one of the weakest attacks in the league, with only 17 goals in 22 games (0.77 avg)
They have failed to score in 12 matches
Rennes is significantly stronger offensively, averaging 1.55 goals per game
Rennes' major weakness is their away defense, where they concede an average of 2.88 goals
Auxerre's defense is relatively stable at home (0.92 goals conceded avg)
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Auxerre has won twice, Rennes once, with two draws
The goal difference is perfectly balanced at 7:7
The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw
Key Players
Lassine Sinayoko is Auxerre's top scorer with seven season goals and three assists
KĂ©vin Danois has contributed two goals and one assist
Sinaly Diomandé is a key player in the defense
For Rennes, Estéban Lepaul is the most dangerous attacker with ten goals and three assists
Breel Embolo has scored six goals and provided two assists this season
Mousa Tamari has been directly involved in six goals (three goals, three assists)
Goalkeepers
In goal for Auxerre is Donovan LĂ©on, who has an average rating of 6.94 from 20 appearances
For Rennes, Brice Samba is the goalkeeper; his season rating is 6.83 in 21 games
Both teams have kept five clean sheets this season
Influences
Auxerre's home advantage is primarily evident in their defense
They concede only 0.92 goals per game at home compared to 2.0 away
Rennes has significant defensive problems away, conceding an average of 2.88 goals
The last five matches at the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.4 goals