Ligue 1
Nantes - Le Havre
02/22/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.2
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
11%0:1
10%2:1
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
32%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Stark form contrast: Nantes has lost their last five games, while Le Havre has won their last two
- Battle of weak defenses: Nantes concedes an average of 2.0 goals at home, Le Havre concedes 2.67 away
- Low goal threat: Both teams score less than one goal per game on average (0.91), and the model predicts only a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
- Nantes' offense is weakened by the suspension of Matthis Abline (4 goals, 2 assists), leaving only 70% of their goal threat available
- Le Havre travels with a very long list of injured and suspended players, which could affect squad depth
- The mathematical prediction is extremely uncertain, with almost equal probabilities for a win, draw, or loss (37% home win, 31% away win)
Overview
In the Ligue 1 relegation battle, Nantes (17th place, 14 points) host Le Havre (13th place, 26 points)
The match will take place on February 22, 2026, at 5:15 PM at the Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau
For Nantes, the goal is to end a disastrous losing streak and collect vital points for survival
Form
Nantes is in a deep crisis with a form of LLLLL from their last five matches
The team has lost all five games and is on a downward spiral
Le Havre shows significantly better form with DDLWW
After a draw and a loss, they managed to win their last two games, indicating an upward trend
Statistics
Both teams have a weak offense, averaging only 0.91 goals per game this season
Nantes' defense is significantly more vulnerable with an average of 1.82 goals conceded per game, compared to Le Havre's 1.23
Particularly striking is Nantes' weakness at home (2.0 goals conceded per game) and Le Havre's weakness away (2.67 goals conceded per game)
Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 11 of Le Havre's 22 games
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, Le Havre has the upper hand with two wins to Nantes' one, with two matches ending in a draw
The goal difference also slightly favors the visitors at 6:4
The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw
Overall, Le Havre has shown slight dominance in the recent past
Key Players
For Nantes, defender Fabien Centonze stands out with three goals this season
Chidozie Awaziem and Johann Lepenant are also key pillars of the team
For Le Havre, Issa Soumaré is the most dangerous attacker with six goals
Rassoul Ndiaye contributes significantly to the attack with three goals and three assists, supported by Fodé Doucouré with two goals this season
Goalkeepers
Anthony Lopes is in goal for Nantes; the team has kept 3 clean sheets this season
For Le Havre, Mory Diaw is between the posts; his team has managed to keep 6 clean sheets so far
Influences
Nantes has a very poor record at home, with only 10 goals scored and 22 conceded in 11 matches
Le Havre is also extremely vulnerable on the road, having conceded 16 goals in 6 away games
Recent matches at the Stade de la Beaujoire have been high-scoring, with an average of 2.8 goals per game and both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 cases