Ligue 1
Lens - Monaco
02/21/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.0
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
27%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- As league leaders, Lens are extremely strong at home, conceding an average of only 0.45 goals
- Lens' strong defense (only 17 goals conceded) meets one of the most vulnerable away defenses in the league (Monaco, 2.5 goals conceded per game)
- Current form clearly favors Lens, who are on a three-game winning streak
Risk Factors
- Monaco is dealing with numerous absences, including key players like Aleksandr Golovin, leaving only about 69% of their usual goal threat available
- Despite the absences, Monaco has scored more frequently in recent games (3.0 goals) than their season average (1.7)
- The historical head-to-head record is balanced, showing that Monaco has been a tough opponent for Lens in the past
Overview
League leaders Lens (1st place, 52 points) host AS Monaco (8th place, 31 points) at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis
A top Ligue 1 match on February 21, 2026, 5:00 PM
Lens aims to defend their position at the top of the table, while Monaco wants to stay in touch with the European spots
The mathematical analysis favors Lens with a 51% win probability
Form
Lens is in outstanding form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches
Form: WLWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team enters this game on a three-game winning streak
Monaco has been more inconsistent with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 fixtures
Form: DWDWL
Monaco's last game ended in a loss
Statistics
Lens has one of the strongest defenses in the league, conceding only 0.77 goals per game
At home, Lens is a fortress, having conceded just 5 goals in 11 matches
Monaco's attack is potent, averaging 1.59 goals per game
However, their defense is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game
Head-to-Head
The record of the last five head-to-head encounters is balanced, with two wins each for Lens and Monaco, and one draw
Lens scored 11 goals in these matches, while Monaco scored 8
The last meeting was a clear 4-1 victory for Lens
Key Players
Wesley Saïd (10 goals, 2 assists) and Odsonne Édouard (8 goals, 3 assists) are the top scorers for Lens
Adrien Thomasson is a key creator with 6 assists
For Monaco, Folarin Balogun and Maghnes Akliouche are the most dangerous attackers with 4 season goals each
Lamine Camara has contributed 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Lens' goalkeeper, Robin Risser, has been part of a team that has kept 9 clean sheets this season
Monaco's Philipp Köhn has kept 5 clean sheets with his team this season
Influences
Lens has a significant home advantage, highlighted by conceding only 5 goals in 11 home matches
However, the last five games at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 1.8 goals
This contrasts with the general attacking strength of both teams this season