Super League
Basel - Lugano
02/15/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.8
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
28%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Form advantage for Lugano: The visitors are unbeaten in five games, while Basel shows inconsistent form
- Lugano's offensive trend: The team is scoring much more frequently in recent games with 2.4 goals per game compared to their season average (1.7)
- Slight favorites according to the model: The mathematical analysis gives Lugano a slightly higher win probability of 38%
Risk Factors
- Squad issues for Basel: With Philip Otele, a key player is missing, leaving only 69% of the seasonal goal threat available in the squad
- Short recovery time for Basel: The home team has only had three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
- Basel's home strength: Despite their poor form, Basel is very stable defensively at St. Jakob-Park, conceding less than one goal per game on average (0.91)
Overview
At St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel (4th place, 39 points) hosts FC Lugano (3rd place, 42 points) for a top Super League clash
The match takes place on February 15, 2026, at 4:30 PM
It's a direct duel for third place in the table, with only three points separating the teams
Form
FC Basel has mixed form with a record of WLLWL from their last five games
The team has recorded 2 wins and 3 losses
FC Lugano is in excellent form and unbeaten in their last five matches (WWDDD)
They secured 2 wins and 3 draws, with the last three games ending in a draw
Statistics
Both teams are almost identical defensively this season, conceding an average of 1.21 goals per game
Offensively, Lugano has a slight edge with 1.67 goals per game compared to Basel's 1.5
Basel is particularly strong defensively at home, conceding only 0.91 goals on average
According to statistics, Lugano has been scoring more frequently recently (2.4 goals per game) than their season average (1.7)
Head-to-Head
The record of the last five head-to-head encounters is perfectly balanced
Both Basel and Lugano have won two matches each, with one game ending in a draw
The goal difference is slightly in favor of Basel at 10:8
The last meeting was won by Lugano with a score of 1:0
Key Players
Xherdan Shaqiri is the key player for Basel with 10 goals and 10 assists
Dominik Schmid has contributed 2 goals and 5 assists this season
Kevin Behrens is the top striker for Lugano with 10 seasonal goals and scored 4 goals in the last 5 games
Anto Grgic is showing rising form and has 6 goals and 4 assists
Uran Bislimi has scored 5 goals and has also been on target in recent games
Goalkeepers
Marwin Hitz is in goal for FC Basel and has kept 7 clean sheets this season
Amir Saipi is the goalkeeper for FC Lugano
Both goalkeepers have very similar average season ratings with 7.23 (Hitz) and 7.27 (Saipi)
Influences
Basel benefits from a clear home advantage at St. Jakob-Park, where they concede less than one goal per game on average (0.91)
The last five matches at the stadium have been rather low-scoring with an average of 2.2 goals
However, both teams scored in four of these five games