Ligue 1
Nice - Lorient
02/22/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.6
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
29%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Drastic form disparity: Lorient has won four of the last five games, while Nice has won only one
- Lorient's defensive vulnerability away from home: With an average of 3.4 goals conceded per away game, the visitors have a significant weakness
- Advantage in the prediction model: The mathematical analysis favors Lorient with a 42% probability of winning, compared to 29% for Nice
Risk Factors
- Reduced attacking power for Nice: The home team's lineup has only 63% of their seasonal goal production available, which could hinder their ability to exploit Lorient's defensive weakness
- Unpredictable matchup: Lorient's strong form directly conflicts with their extremely poor away defensive record (3.4 goals conceded per game), making the outcome more uncertain
Overview
Nice (15th place, 23 points) host Lorient (10th place, 31 points) at the Allianz Riviera
Ligue 1 match on February 22, 2026, 5:15 PM
This is a clash between a team in poor form from the bottom of the table and a visitor in strong form from the mid-table
Form
Nice: WLDDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 games)
Lorient: WWWLW (4 wins, 1 loss in the last 5 games)
The form curve clearly favors the visitors, who have won four of their last five matches, while Nice has won only one of their last five
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
This season, Nice scores an average of 1.23 goals per game and concedes 1.82 goals
Lorient scores an average of 1.32 goals per game and concedes 1.50 goals
Particularly striking is Lorient's defensive weakness away from home, with an average of 3.40 goals conceded per away game
Nice is more defensively stable at home, conceding an average of just 1.27 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, there were 2 wins for Nice, 1 win for Lorient, and 2 draws
The goal difference in these matches is 8:6 in favor of Nice
The last meeting was won by Lorient with a score of 3:1
Overall, the record shows a slight historical advantage for Nice
Key Players
For Nice, Sofiane Diop (7 season goals, 3 assists) and Mohamed-Ali Cho (4 goals, 2 assists) could be decisive
For Lorient, all eyes are on Pablo Pagis (7 season goals) and ArsĂšne Kouassi (2 goals, 5 assists)
Goalkeepers
Maxime Dupé is in goal for Nice; the team has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Yvon Mvogo is in goal for Lorient; his team has achieved 5 clean sheets so far
Influences
Nice's home record is balanced, with an average of 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded per home game
Lorient shows a glaring defensive weakness away, conceding an average of 3.40 goals per game
Statistics for the Allianz Riviera show an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches