Ligue 1
Strasbourg - Lens
02/27/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.8
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Strasbourg
Lens
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
28%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- League standings: A clash between second-placed Lens, fighting for the title, and seventh-placed Strasbourg, hoping for a European spot
- Offensive power: Both teams have a good goal-scoring record, which, according to the data, has recently been even higher than their season average
- Numerous absences for Lens: The visitors have to cope without several key players, including top scorer Wesley Saïd, which could weaken their attack
Risk Factors
- Strasbourg's home strength: The home team is very stable defensively, conceding an average of only 0.67 goals per game in their own stadium
- Lens' low shooting efficiency: Despite the high number of goals, Lens averages only 3.4 shots on target per game, suggesting some inefficiency in chance creation
Overview
Strasbourg (7th place, 34 points) hosts Lens (2nd place, 52 points) at the Stade de la Meinau
A top Ligue 1 match on February 27, 2026, 8:45 PM
Lens is fighting for the top of the table, while Strasbourg is targeting the European spots
The mathematical analysis slightly favors Lens with a 41% win probability
Form
Strasbourg form: WLLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In the last 5 matches, there were 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Most recently, they achieved a 3-1 victory against Olympique Lyonnais
Lens form: LWWWL
Lens has won 3 of their last 5 matches but also lost 2
The last match was a 2-3 loss against Monaco, which ended a winning streak
Statistics
Offensively, Lens is slightly stronger with an average of 1.91 goals per game compared to Strasbourg's 1.70
Defensively, Lens is significantly more stable, conceding only 0.87 goals per game, compared to 1.30 for Strasbourg
Strasbourg is very strong defensively at home, conceding an average of only 0.67 goals at the Stade de la Meinau
Lens is very dangerous away from home, scoring an average of 1.91 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Lens was the more successful team
Lens won 3 matches, Strasbourg won once, and 1 game ended in a draw
The goal difference is 7-5 in favor of Lens
The last meeting was won by Lens 1-0
Key Players
Joaquín Panichelli (13 season goals, 1 assist)
Martial Godo (7 season goals, 1 assist)
Guela Doué (2 season goals, 5 assists)
Wesley Saïd (10 season goals, 2 assists)
Odsonne Édouard (9 season goals, 3 assists)
Florian Thauvin (7 season goals, 3 assists)
Goalkeepers
Mike Penders is in goal for Strasbourg and has kept 7 clean sheets this season
For Lens, Robin Risser is the goalkeeper, who already boasts 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
Strasbourg benefits from a strong home advantage, especially defensively with only 0.67 goals conceded per home game
Statistics at the Stade de la Meinau suggest high-scoring games: an average of 2.8 goals were scored in the last 5 matches
In 4 of Strasbourg's last 5 home games, both teams scored
The playing surface is natural grass