Ligue 1
Paris - Nice
03/01/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.6
1.3
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Paris
Nice
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
30%
Away Win
36%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
64%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Defensive fragility: Both teams have weak defenses, especially Nice, who concede an average of 2.6 goals away from home
- Crisis of form: Both teams are winless in their last five games, suggesting a clash low on confidence
- Balanced prediction: The league standings and mathematical forecast (35% vs. 36%) point to a very tight, evenly matched game
Risk Factors
- Reduced attacking power for Nice: The visitors have only 60% of their seasonal goal threat available, which could limit their attack
- Poor home record on artificial turf: Paris has only secured one victory in 10 home games on their own artificial turf surface
- Paris's offensive slump: Paris's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals per game), falling below their season average of 1.4
Overview
In the Ligue 1 relegation battle, Paris (15th place, 23 points) faces Nice (14th place, 24 points)
The match will take place on March 1, 2026, at 3:00 PM at the Stade Jean Bouin
Both teams are in a slump and urgently need points to distance themselves from the relegation zone
The mathematical forecast suggests a very balanced game, with a slight edge for Nice (36% win probability)
Form
Both teams are winless in their last five matches and are in poor form
Paris's form (all competitions): D-D-D-L-D
In their last five games, Paris has had four draws and one loss
Nice's form (all competitions): L-D-D-L-D
Nice has managed only three draws and two losses in their last five games
Statistics
Both defenses have appeared vulnerable this season
Paris concedes an average of 1.83 goals per game at home
Nice is particularly vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.6 goals
Nice's away games have seen the most goals conceded in the league so far
Paris has scored an average of 1.17 goals at home, while Nice scores 1.3 goals away
Head-to-Head
There has only been one direct duel between the two teams so far
This single encounter ended in a 1-1 draw
Due to the limited number of matches, there is no clear favorite in the historical record
Key Players
For Paris, Ilan Kebbal stands out as the top scorer with 8 goals and 4 assists
Midfielder Maxime Lopez has contributed 3 assists
For Nice, Sofiane Diop is the most dangerous attacker with 7 goals and 3 assists this season
Jonathan Clauss is a key provider with 5 assists
Mohamed-Ali Cho has also proven his goal threat with 4 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
In goal for Paris is Kevin Trapp, who has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Maxime Dupé is the goalkeeper for Nice; his team has managed 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf, on which both teams have a negative record
Paris has won only one of their 10 home games on this surface (1W-4D-5L)
Nice has lost their only game on artificial turf
The average of 2.8 goals per game at Stade Jean Bouin could point towards a high-scoring match