Ligue 1
LOSC Lille - Nantes
03/01/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.2
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
14%0:0
13%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
LOSC Lille
Nantes
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
31%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- League table disparity: Lille (6th) is clearly superior to Nantes (17th) over the season, both offensively and defensively
- Contrasting form trends: Lille is on the rise with two consecutive wins, while Nantes has lost four of their last five matches
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Lille's solid home attack (1.5 goals/game) meets Nantes' vulnerable away defense (1.8 goals conceded/game)
Risk Factors
- Potential fatigue for Lille: The home team has had only three days of rest since their last match
- Lille's goal production has dropped: Recently, Lille scored only 1.0 goals per game, which is below their season average of 1.57
- Nantes coming off a win: The visitors won their last match, which could boost their confidence
Overview
LOSC Lille (6th place, 37 points) hosts Nantes (17th place, 17 points) at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Ligue 1 match on March 1, 2026, 5:15 PM
The home team is fighting for a European spot, while the visitors are in a relegation battle
The mathematical analysis favors Lille with a 49% win probability
Form
LOSC Lille form: DDLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In their last 5 matches, Lille achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and suffered 1 defeat
They have won their last two consecutive matches, indicating an upward trend in form
Nantes form: LLLLW
Nantes has won only 1 of their last 5 games, losing 4
However, their sole victory came in their most recent match, which could suggest a slight turnaround
Statistics
Offensively, Lille is significantly stronger with an average of 1.57 goals per game compared to Nantes' 0.96
Defensively, Lille is also more stable, conceding an average of 1.35 goals, while Nantes concedes 1.74
Nantes' defense is particularly vulnerable away from home (averaging 1.8 goals conceded per game)
Lille scores an average of 1.5 goals per game at home
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, LOSC Lille has been the more successful team with 3 wins
Nantes managed to win only 1 match, with one game ending in a draw
The goal difference also clearly favors Lille at 7:3
The last meeting was won by Lille with a score of 2-0
Key Players
For LOSC Lille, HĂĄkon Arnar Haraldsson (5 season goals) and FĂ©lix Correia (3 goals, 5 assists) are key offensive players
Benjamin André is a key player in midfield with a high average rating of 7.15
For Nantes, Fabien Centonze is a goal threat from defense with 3 season goals
Youssef El Arabi is an important forward, also with 3 goals
Chidozie Awaziem organizes the defense and has a solid rating of 6.92
Goalkeepers
In goal for Lille is Berke Ăzer, who has kept 7 clean sheets this season
For Nantes, Anthony Lopes is the goalkeeper, he has achieved 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
Lille has a clear home advantage, with 1.5 goals per home game and only 1.08 conceded
The last 5 matches at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy have been rather low-scoring, with an average of just 2.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in only 2 of these 5 matches