Ligue 1
Rennes - Toulouse
02/28/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.0
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
10%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Rennes
Toulouse
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
27%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Rennes' resurgence with two consecutive wins meets Toulouse's four-game winless streak
- Rennes' strong home defense (only 0.86 goals conceded/game) will test Toulouse's potent away attack (1.44 goals/game)
- The mathematical analysis clearly favors Rennes with a 51% win probability
Risk Factors
- Toulouse is offensively weakened by the absences of Aron Dønnun (3 goals/4 assists) and Frank Magri (5 goals/1 assist), with only 69% of their goal-scoring threat available
- The historical record is clearly against Rennes, who have failed to win any of the last five encounters against Toulouse (3 losses, 2 draws)
Overview
Rennes (6th place, 37 points) host Toulouse (10th place, 31 points) at Roazhon Park
A mid-table clash in Ligue 1 on February 28, 2026, 5:00 PM
Rennes aims to stay in contention for European spots with a victory
Form
Rennes form: LLLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
After three consecutive losses, Rennes won their last two matches
Overall, the team has 2 wins and 3 losses from the last five games
Toulouse form: WLLDD
Toulouse are winless in their last four matches
The visitors have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games
Statistics
Rennes scores an average of 1.61 goals per game and concedes 1.52
At home, Rennes is defensively strong, conceding only 0.86 goals per game
Toulouse has a goal record of 1.45 goals for and 1.18 against per game
Away from home, Toulouse concedes an average of 1.22 goals
An average of 3.4 goals have been scored in the last 5 games at Roazhon Park
Head-to-Head
Rennes has failed to win in the last 5 direct encounters
Toulouse won 3 times, with 2 draws
The goal difference also favors Toulouse at 8:4
The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw
Key Players
Estéban Lepaul is Rennes' top striker with 11 goals this season
Mousa Tamari has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this season
Valentin Rongier is a key player in midfield with a high season rating of 7.09
Yann Gboho is Toulouse's most dangerous player with 6 goals and 4 assists
Defender Charlie Cresswell also shows attacking qualities with 3 goals and 2 assists
Pape Demba Diop has proven valuable with 1 goal and 1 assist in just 5 games
Goalkeepers
Rennes' goalkeeper Brice Samba has kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches
Guillaume Restes of Toulouse has 8 clean sheets in 22 appearances
Influences
Rennes demonstrates a clear home advantage, conceding only 0.86 goals per home game on season average
Matches at Roazhon Park are often high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five games
In 4 of the last 5 home matches for Rennes, both teams have scored