Ligue 1
Le Havre - Paris Saint Germain
02/28/2026, 08:05 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.7
1.7
1:1
13%0:2
10%1:2
10%2:1
6%0:3
5%What influences the xG?
Le Havre
Paris Saint Germain
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
27%
Away Win
52%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
48%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Class difference in attack: PSG scores an average of 2.26 goals per game, Le Havre only 0.87
- Clear H2H dominance: PSG has won 4 of the last 5 encounters, with a goal difference of 14:5
- Strong current form of PSG: According to the analysis, the visitors are currently scoring even more frequently (2.8 goals per game) than their season average
Risk Factors
- Weakened attack for PSG: Due to the absences of Ousmane Dembélé, Senny Mayulu, and João Neves, only 63% of the usual goal threat is available
- High workload for PSG: The visitors had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Le Havre's defensive fortress: The home team concedes an average of only 0.65 goals at the Stade Océane
Overview
Le Havre (13th place, 26 points) host league leaders Paris Saint Germain (1st place, 54 points) at the Stade Océane
Ligue 1 match on February 28, 2026, 9:05 PM
The roles are clearly defined, with PSG entering the match as clear favorites
The mathematical analysis supports this with a 52% win probability for the visitors
Form
Le Havre's form has been mixed with two wins, one draw, and two losses from their last five matches (Form: DLWWL)
Paris Saint Germain is in better shape, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss (Form: WLWWD)
PSG is unbeaten in two games, while Le Havre lost their last match
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
PSG has one of the strongest attacks in the league, averaging 2.26 goals per game, while Le Havre struggles offensively with 0.87 goals per game
However, Le Havre is very strong defensively at home, conceding an average of just 0.65 goals per home game
PSG averages 2.2 goals scored away from home, but also concedes 1.5 goals per away match
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record speaks clearly for PSG
In the last five encounters, the Parisians have won four times, with one draw
Le Havre has not won a single game
The goal difference is 14:5 in favor of Paris Saint Germain, who also won the last meeting 3-0
Key Players
For Le Havre, forward Issa Soumaré stands out with 6 season goals and 2 assists, supported by midfielder Rassoul Ndiaye (3 goals, 3 assists)
In defense, Gautier Lloris is a key player
For PSG, forwards Bradley Barcola (8 goals, 1 assist) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (4 goals, 3 assists) are crucial
In midfield, Vitinha pulls the strings with 7 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Le Havre's goalkeeper is Mory Diaw
His team has kept 6 clean sheets this season
For PSG, Matvey Safonov is in goal
The Parisian defense has managed to keep a clean sheet in 12 league games
Influences
Le Havre benefits from a strong home advantage, especially in defense, with only 0.65 goals conceded per game at the Stade Océane
The last five matches at the stadium have averaged 1.8 goals per game