Ligue 1
Lorient - Auxerre
03/01/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
1.0
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Lorient
Auxerre
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
28%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Lorient's solid home defense (1.0 goals conceded/game) meets Auxerre's vulnerable away defense (2.0 goals conceded/game)
- Drastic form difference: Lorient has won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Auxerre has only won one and is in a form crisis
- Offensive discrepancy: Lorient scores almost twice as many goals per game on average (1.39) as Auxerre (0.74), which has failed to score in over half of its league games
Risk Factors
- Historical record: The head-to-head record does not favor Lorient, as Auxerre has won 2 of the last 5 encounters (1 loss)
- Numerous absences: Lorient has a long list of injured or doubtful players, which could affect their squad depth and performance
Overview
Lorient, in 9th place with 32 points, hosts Auxerre, 16th with 17 points
The Ligue 1 match will take place on March 1, 2026, at 5:15 PM at the Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir
Lorient aims to solidify its mid-table position, while Auxerre needs crucial points in the relegation battle
The mathematical analysis favors Lorient with a 48% probability of winning
Form
Lorient form (all competitions): WWLWD
In the last five matches, they have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Auxerre form (all competitions): LDDWL
Auxerre has managed only 1 win in their last five games, along with 2 draws and 2 losses
The home team is in significantly better form
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Lorient scores an average of 1.39 goals per game, while Auxerre averages only 0.74 goals
At home, Lorient is defensively solid, conceding an average of just 1.00 goal
In contrast, Auxerre is very vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game
Auxerre has failed to score in 13 of their 23 league matches, highlighting their offensive weakness
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, the record is slightly in favor of Auxerre
Auxerre won 2 matches, Lorient 1, with 2 draws
The goal difference is perfectly balanced at 5:5 goals
The last meeting was won by Auxerre with a score of 1-0
Key Players
For Lorient, Pablo Pagis (8 season goals), Bamba Dieng (4 goals, 1 assist), and Jean-Victor Makengo (3 goals, 2 assists) are the key offensive players
For Auxerre, Lassine Sinayoko is the most important attacker with 6 goals and 3 assists
He is supported by KĂ©vin Danois and Danny Namaso, each with 2 goals and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
In goal for Lorient is Yvon Mvogo, who has been involved in 5 clean sheets this season
Auxerre's goal is kept by Donovan LĂ©on, whose team has also kept 5 clean sheets
Both goalkeepers have similar season statistics
Influences
Lorient is very strong on their home artificial turf, with a record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and only one loss
Auxerre has only played one match on artificial turf so far, which ended in a draw
The last 5 home games at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir averaged 2.4 goals per game