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La Liga08/27/2026, 06:30 PM

Celta de Vigo – Osasuna1 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Celta de Vigo
1.53
Total xG
2.41
Osasuna
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorCelta de VigoOsasuna
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)+0.31
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.21
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)−0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)−0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 6, 11 places gap)−0.11
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 17, 11 places gap)+0.08
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.07
Borja Iglesias not in squad (14 goals, 2 assists)
Ferran JutglĂ  not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists)
Sergio Carreira not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Fer LĂłpez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Ante Budimir on the bench (17 goals, 0 assists)
Rubén García on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists)
Enzo Boyomo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Aimar Oroz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Valentin Rosier not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 59% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Severe squad depletion: Osasuna starts with only 60% of their usual goal-scoring power, missing Ante Budimir and RubĂ©n GarcĂ­a
  • Mathematical edge: The model predicts a 51% probability for a Celta de Vigo home victory
  • Recent offensive push: Osasuna averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.0 by Celta de Vigo

Risks

  • High fatigue risk: Osasuna has had only 3 days of rest since their last official match
  • Stalling attack: Celta de Vigo's recent goal average has dropped to 1.3 compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Reduced firepower: Celta de Vigo is missing key attackers Borja Iglesias and Ferran JutglĂ 

All probabilities

Result
Celta de Vigo51%
Draw29%
Osasuna20%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw80%
Osasuna or draw49%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:0
12%
2:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Osasuna: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
  2. Osasuna: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')
  3. Osasuna: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
  4. Celta de Vigo: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
  5. Celta de Vigo: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Lineups

Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Osasuna 5-4-1

Celta de Vigo
  • 13 I. Radu
  • 20 J. RodrĂ­guez Galiano
  • 29 Y. Lago Amil
  • 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
  • 17 J. Rueda GarcĂ­a
  • 8 M. RomĂĄn GonzĂĄlez
  • 6 Ilaix Moriba
  • 22 J. GalĂĄn Gil
  • 10 I. Aspas Juncal
  • 11 P. DurĂĄn FernĂĄndez
  • 19 W. Swedberg
Osasuna
  • 1 S. Herrera PirĂłn
  • 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
  • 29 A. Osambela Larraya
  • 24 A. Catena MarugĂĄn
  • 5 J. Herrando Oroz
  • 23 A. Bretones Cruz
  • 21 J. Dubasin
  • 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
  • 6 L. TorrĂł Marset
  • 11 E. Barja Afonso
  • 9 R. GarcĂ­a de Haro
Substitutes
  • 4 A. Faye
  • 14 A. Febas PĂ©rez
  • 15 Á. NĂșñez Cobo
  • 9 F. JutlgĂ  Blanc
  • 39 J. El-Abdellaoui
  • 2 C. Starfelt
  • 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
  • 23 H. Álvarez AntĂșnez
  • 1 A. Bayındır
  • 16 H. Sotos
  • 28 A. Antañón Vieites
  • 30 H. Garcia Hoz
  • 15 D. Rico Salguero
  • 17 A. Budimir
  • 13 A. FernĂĄndez Abarisketa
  • 10 A. Oroz
  • 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
  • 16 M. GĂłmez Bordonado
  • 22 F. Boyomos
  • 14 R. GarcĂ­a Santos
  • 18 R. Moro Prescoli
  • 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
  • 35 U. Santos Mañeru

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