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La Liga

Celta de Vigo - Osasuna

08/27/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Celta de Vigo
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Osasuna
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CDVOSA

Celta de Vigo

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 17, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.07
Borja Iglesias not in squad (14 goals, 2 assists)
Ferran JutglĂ  not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists)
Sergio Carreira not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Fer LĂłpez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Osasuna

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.31
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.21
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.20
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 6, 11 places gap)
-0.11
Ante Budimir on the bench (17 goals, 0 assists)
Rubén García on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists)
Enzo Boyomo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Aimar Oroz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Valentin Rosier not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 59% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Osasuna: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Osasuna: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')

  • 3
    Osasuna: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 4
    Celta de Vigo: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

  • 5
    Celta de Vigo: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad depletion: Osasuna starts with only 60% of their usual goal-scoring power, missing Ante Budimir and RubĂ©n GarcĂ­a
  • Mathematical edge: The model predicts a 51% probability for a Celta de Vigo home victory
  • Recent offensive push: Osasuna averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.0 by Celta de Vigo
Risk Factors
  • High fatigue risk: Osasuna has had only 3 days of rest since their last official match
  • Stalling attack: Celta de Vigo's recent goal average has dropped to 1.3 compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Reduced firepower: Celta de Vigo is missing key attackers Borja Iglesias and Ferran JutglĂ 
Overview

Celta de Vigo hosts Osasuna at the Estadio de BalaĂ­dos

La Liga match on August 27, 2026, 7:30 PM

Celta de Vigo sits in 12th place with 1 point

Osasuna occupies 11th place, also with 1 point

Both teams are looking for their first win of the season

Form

Celta de Vigo enters with form WLDWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recently secured a 0-0 draw away at Valencia

Osasuna travels with form LLLLD

Their last match ended in a 0-0 draw against Levante

The hosts show a more stable recent run

Statistics

Celta de Vigo scored 1.39 goals per game last season

At home their average was 1.38 goals scored

Osasuna averages 1.16 goals scored per match

Osasuna's away weakness is highlighted by 2.36 goals conceded per away game

The stadium in Vigo recently averaged 3.4 total goals per game

Head-to-Head

Balanced record from the last 4 matches with 2 wins for each team

Most recently Osasuna won 2-1 away at Celta de Vigo

A total of 14 goals were scored in these 4 head-to-head games

None of the direct encounters ended in a draw

Key Players

Williot Swedberg recorded 5 goals and 5 assists in 29 appearances with a 6.74 rating

Javi Rueda contributed 2 goals and 6 assists in 26 games

Iago Aspas has 5 goals and 3 assists from 32 appearances

RaĂșl GarcĂ­a scored 7 goals and provided 1 assist in 36 matches

Alejandro Catena stabilizes the defense and scored 3 goals in 35 games

Jon Moncayola registered 4 assists in 36 games

Goalkeepers

Ionuț Radu played in 38 matches and recorded 10 clean sheets

Sergio Herrera completed 37 matches and achieved 7 clean sheets

Radu has a seasonal average rating of 6.89 compared to Herrera's 6.84

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio de BalaĂ­dos

The home venue features an average of 3.4 goals per game

The historical both teams to score rate at this stadium is 60%

Celta de Vigo scored 29 goals and conceded 28 at home

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