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La Liga08/26/2026, 07:00 PM

Real Madrid – Real Sociedad4 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Real Madrid
2.63
Total xG
3.71
Real Sociedad
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorReal MadridReal Sociedad
Attack strength (1.59x league average)+1.76
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)+0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)−0.11
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)−0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.06
Gonzalo GarcĂ­a not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Brahim DĂ­az on the bench (1 goals, 6 assists)
RaĂșl Asencio not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Orri Óskarsson on the bench (9 goals, 0 assists)
Ander Barrenetxea on the bench (3 goals, 5 assists)
Carlos Soler on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Matchup advantage: Real Madrid's strong home offense averaging 2.05 goals meets the visitors' shaky defense conceding 2.14 goals per away game on average
  • Tactical dominance: Real Madrid averaged 5.0 shots on target with 61% possession in recent matches
  • Historical dominance: The hosts remain unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head matches, celebrating 4 wins

Risks

  • Real Madrid's goal production has slowed down recently to 1.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 2.2
  • High defensive vulnerability for Real Sociedad with an average of 2.14 goals conceded per away game
  • Squad depth tested for Real Madrid with 6 players sidelined including A. TchouamĂ©ni and F. Mendy

All probabilities

Result
Real Madrid70%
Draw18%
Real Sociedad12%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw88%
Real Sociedad or draw30%
No draw82%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%

Most likely scores

2:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
4:1
5%
2:2
5%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (13 points lost)
  2. Real Madrid: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  3. Real Sociedad: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
  4. Real Madrid: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Lineups

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1

Real Madrid
  • 1 T. Courtois
  • 24 D. Dumfries
  • 16 I. KonatĂ©
  • 4 D. Huijsen
  • 18 A. Carreras
  • 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
  • 20 B. Silva
  • 15 A. Guler
  • 5 J. Bellingham
  • 7 V. JĂșnior
  • 10 K. MbappĂ©
Real Sociedad
  • 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
  • 2 J. Aramburu
  • 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
  • 31 J. MartĂ­n Vicente
  • 17 S. GĂłmez
  • 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
  • 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
  • 14 T. Kubo
  • 24 L. Sučić
  • 12 J. Ochieng
  • 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Substitutes
  • 25 Y. Diomande
  • 19 C. EspĂ­ Escrihuela
  • 6 E. Camavinga
  • 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
  • 22 A. RĂŒdiger
  • 13 A. Lunin
  • 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
  • 17 M. Cucurella
  • 26 S. Mestre SĂĄnchez
  • 29 J. Cestero Sancho
  • 33 M. Rivas Lagos
  • 36 A. Ciria Flores
  • 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
  • 9 O. Óskarsson
  • 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
  • 18 C. Soler BarragĂĄn
  • 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
  • 23 A. Zakharyan
  • 5 I. ZubeldĂ­a Elorza
  • 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
  • 3 A. Muñoz CapellĂĄn
  • 28 A. Lebarbier Null
  • 29 A. Marchal Garcia
  • 26 I. Aguirre Basurko
  • 12 J. Nguono Ochieng

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