La Liga
Real Madrid - Real Sociedad
08/26/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.6
3.7
1.1
2:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
7%4:1
5%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
The Lab
- 1Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (13 points lost)
- 2Real Madrid: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- 3Real Sociedad: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- 4Real Madrid: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
70%
Draw
18%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
72%
Under 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
51%
Under 3.5
49%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
30%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Matchup advantage: Real Madrid's strong home offense averaging 2.05 goals meets the visitors' shaky defense conceding 2.14 goals per away game on average
- Tactical dominance: Real Madrid averaged 5.0 shots on target with 61% possession in recent matches
- Historical dominance: The hosts remain unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head matches, celebrating 4 wins
Risk Factors
- Real Madrid's goal production has slowed down recently to 1.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 2.2
- High defensive vulnerability for Real Sociedad with an average of 2.14 goals conceded per away game
- Squad depth tested for Real Madrid with 6 players sidelined including A. Tchouaméni and F. Mendy
Overview
Real Madrid host Real Sociedad at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
La Liga match on August 26, 2026, 7:00 PM
Real Madrid currently sit in 7th place with 3 points from one game
Real Sociedad are in 19th place with 0 points
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 70%
Form
Real Madrid are in strong form with a record of LWWWW
The hosts recorded 4 wins and 1 loss in their recent matches
Real Sociedad are struggling with a form of DDLDL and are winless in 5 matches
The visitors have registered 3 draws and 2 losses lately
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Real Madrid score an average of 2.03 goals and concede just 0.92 goals per match this season
In home games, Madrid average 2.05 goals scored and only 0.73 goals conceded
Real Sociedad score an average of 1.55 goals but concede 1.61 goals per game
On the road, the visitors concede an average of 2.14 goals per match
Matches at this venue historically produce an average of 3.2 goals
Head-to-Head
Dominant record for Real Madrid in the last 5 head-to-head matches
The hosts celebrated 4 wins, with one draw and zero defeats
The goal difference stands at 13:6 in favor of Real Madrid
The last direct encounter on February 14, 2026 ended in a 4-1 home victory for Real Madrid
Key Players
Kylian Mbappé leads the attack with 25 goals, 5 assists, and a 7.64 rating
Vinicius Junior has contributed 16 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.33
Jude Bellingham impresses with 6 goals, 4 assists, and a strong rating of 7.32
Mikel Oyarzabal has recorded 15 goals, 4 assists, and a 7.16 rating on the other side
Sergio GĂłmez shines as a playmaker with 6 assists and a rating of 6.93
Takefusa Kubo has registered 2 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 6.99
Goalkeepers
Thibaut Courtois starts in goal for Real Madrid with a home record of 6 clean sheets
Ălex Remiro guards the net for the visitors, having kept 1 clean sheet in away matches
Courtois holds a home rating of 7.01, whereas Remiro registers a venue rating of 5.71
Influences
The grass pitch of the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu offers optimal playing conditions
Matches at this stadium historically produce an average of 3.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of matches played here
The home record of 45 goals scored in 22 matches highlights high scoring efficiency