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La Liga

Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano

08/15/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Sevilla
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Rayo Vallecano
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
SEVRV

Sevilla

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.03
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Djibril Sow not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Rubén Vargas on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists)
José Ángel Carmona on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Neal Maupay not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Nemanja Gudelj not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
58% of goal output missing (only 40% available)

Rayo Vallecano

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Pep ChavarrĂ­a not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Sevilla: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Sevilla with Chidera Ejuke: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Rayo Vallecano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad impact for Sevilla: Only 40% of their goal threat is available with Djibril Sow, RubĂ©n Vargas, JosĂ© Ángel Carmona, Neal Maupay and Nemanja Gudelj missing
  • Tactical metrics: Sevilla averaged 4.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Historical advantage: Sevilla remains unbeaten in the last 4 head-to-head matches against Rayo Vallecano
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive vulnerability: Rayo Vallecano conceded an average of 1.81 goals per away match last season
  • Struggling attack: Rayo Vallecano's recent goal production of 1.2 is below their season average of 1.5
  • Conceding rate: Sevilla conceded an average of 1.58 goals per game last season
Overview

Sevilla host Rayo Vallecano at the Estadio RamĂłn SĂĄnchez PizjuĂĄn

La Liga match on August 15, 2026, 9:30 PM

Both teams start the new season level on points

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 43%

Form

Sevilla's form is WWWLL with two consecutive defeats at the end

Rayo Vallecano's form is DDWWL

Sevilla recorded three wins in their last five matches

Rayo Vallecano achieved two wins and two draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sevilla scored an average of 1.21 goals and conceded 1.58 last season

Rayo Vallecano scored an average of 1.08 goals and conceded 1.16

Sevilla averaged 1.2 goals scored in home matches

Rayo Vallecano conceded an average of 1.81 goals away from home

Both teams scored in 22 of Sevilla's matches and 17 of Rayo's matches

Head-to-Head

Sevilla leads the history with 2 wins from 4 head-to-head matches

No wins for Rayo Vallecano with 2 draws recorded

The last meeting on March 8, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw

Goal difference stands at 4-2 in favor of Sevilla

Key Players

Oso with 2 goals and 3 assists in 21 appearances

Isaac Romero recorded 4 goals in 29 season matches

Lucien Agoumé scored 1 goal and provided 3 assists

Jorge de Frutos scored 10 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Randy Nteka scored 3 times in 13 appearances

Florian Lejeune with 2 goals and 1 assist in 36 matches

Goalkeepers

Odysseas Vlachodimos played 33 matches with an average rating of 6.74

Augusto Batalla made 34 appearances with an average rating of 6.91

Sevilla recorded 6 clean sheets last season

Rayo Vallecano kept 12 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass

In Sevilla's last 5 home matches, there was an average of 2.0 goals per game

Home advantage supported by 24 home goals scored last season

Rayo Vallecano scored 17 goals in 16 away matches

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