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Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain - Monaco

03/06/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Paris Saint Germain
1.9
Total xG
2.9
Monaco
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
PSGMON

Paris Saint Germain

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.59
Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.06
João Neves not in starting XI (5 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

Monaco

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.06
T. Minamino not in starting XI (3 goals, 2 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 95% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

25%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 59% home win probability for Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain's home strength (2.14 goals scored, 0.29 goals conceded) meets Monaco's defensive away weakness (2.12 goals conceded)
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paris Saint Germain was dominant, losing only 1 out of 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Paris Saint Germain's goal production is currently slowing down (2.0 goals) compared to the season average (2.4 goals)
  • Monaco concedes an average of 2.12 goals per away game
  • Both goalkeepers show a decline in their performance according to the form trend
Overview

Paris Saint Germain (1st place, 57 points) host Monaco (7th place, 37 points) at Parc des Princes

Ligue 1 match on March 6, 2026, 8:45 PM

Paris Saint Germain leads the league and aims to maintain their advantage at the top of the table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Paris Saint Germain shows a form of LWWDW from all competitions

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games

Monaco shows a form of WLWDW from all competitions

Monaco achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games

Statistics

Paris Saint Germain scored an average of 2.21 goals per game and conceded 0.79 goals per game

Monaco scored an average of 1.67 goals per game and conceded 1.50 goals per game

At home, Paris Saint Germain scores an average of 2.14 goals and concedes 0.29 goals

Away, Monaco scores an average of 1.62 goals and concedes 2.12 goals

Paris Saint Germain kept 13 clean sheets, Monaco kept 6 clean sheets

At Parc des Princes, an average of 3.4 goals per game are scored

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Paris Saint Germain won 3 times, Monaco won 1 time, and there was 1 draw

Paris Saint Germain scored 13 goals, while Monaco scored 8 goals

The last encounter on February 25, 2026 ended in a 2:2 draw

Paris Saint Germain has been dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For Paris Saint Germain, Vitinha (1 goal, 7 assists), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (4 goals, 3 assists), and Bradley Barcola (9 goals, 1 assist) are important players

Vitinha has a season average rating of 7.63, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of 7.20, and Bradley Barcola of 7.16

For Monaco, Folarin Balogun (6 goals, 3 assists), Aleksandr Golovin (2 goals, 5 assists), and Simon Adingra (3 goals, 0 assists) stand out

Aleksandr Golovin has provided 3 assists in his last 3 games

Simon Adingra scored 2 goals in his last game and shows a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

Paris Saint Germain's goalkeeper, Matvey Safonov, has an average rating of 7.00 in 7 season appearances

Monaco's goalkeeper, Philipp Köhn, has an average rating of 6.77 in 18 season appearances

Paris Saint Germain has recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Monaco has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Paris Saint Germain shows home strength with an average of 2.14 goals scored and only 0.29 goals conceded at Parc des Princes

The away team Monaco concedes an average of 2.12 goals per away game

Parc des Princes sees an average of 3.4 goals per game

In 4 out of 5 games at Parc des Princes, over 2.5 goals were scored

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