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La Liga

Deportivo Alavés - Getafe

08/15/2026, 05:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Deportivo Alavés
1.1
Total xG
1.8
Getafe
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

19%

1:0

17%

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

10%
What influences the xG?
DAGET

Deportivo Alavés

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Victor Parada not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Ibrahim Diabaté not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Getafe

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.64
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.02
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.01
Luis Milla not in squad (1 goals, 10 assists)
Mauro Arambarri not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Juan Iglesias not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Domingos Duarte not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 39% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Getafe with Allan Nyom: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Deportivo Alavés: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Deportivo Alavés: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Deportivo Alavés: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

35%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

26%

Under 2.5

74%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

34%

No

66%

Key Factors
  • Squad deficit: Only 40% of the goal threat available, without Luis Milla, Mauro Arambarri, Juan Iglesias, Domingos Duarte
  • Model prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Deportivo Alavés with a 44% home win probability
  • Tactical advantage: Alavés averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches, while Getafe averaged 2.8
Risk Factors
  • Historical dominance: Getafe dominated recent duels with 3 wins in 4 matches and a 6:1 goal record
  • Attacking dip: Alavés goals average dropped to 1.2 recently compared to the 1.4 season average
Overview

Deportivo Alavés hosts Getafe at Estadio de Mendizorroza

La Liga match on August 15, 2026, 7:30 PM

Season opener with both teams at 0 points

Alavés starts in 14th place, Getafe in 3rd place in the standings

Form

Deportivo Alavés form: LDWWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Getafe form: LDWLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Both teams show a balanced record in recent matches

Statistics

Alavés averages 1.16 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per match

Getafe averages 0.84 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded

Alavés home record stands at 1.14 scored and 1.14 conceded goals

Getafe averages 0.82 goals scored in away games

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Getafe dominates the head-to-head record with 3 wins and 1 draw

Alavés has not won a direct matchup yet

The last match ended in a 2:0 win for Getafe on February 8, 2026

Key Players

Toni Martínez with 14 goals and 3 assists this season

Antonio Blanco scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists

Martín Satriano is the most dangerous away attacker with 6 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Antonio Sivera played 38 matches with a 6.75 rating

David Soria completed 38 matches with a 6.94 rating

Getafe recorded 12 clean sheets this season, Alavés 5

Influences

Home advantage at Estadio de Mendizorroza on grass surface

Recently, matches at this stadium averaged 3.4 goals per game

The BTTS rate at this venue was 80% in recent matches

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