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La Liga08/27/2026, 07:00 PM

FC Barcelona – Athletic Club2 : 0

Why the model thinks so

FC Barcelona
1.44
Total xG
2.21
Athletic Club
0.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorFC BarcelonaAthletic Club
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)+0.54
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)−0.39
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.30
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)−0.13
Attack strength (1.29x league average)−0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)−0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)−0.09
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)+0.07
Marcus Rashford not in squad (8 goals, 8 assists)
Robert Lewandowski not in squad (14 goals, 2 assists)
Dani Olmo on the bench (7 goals, 8 assists)
Robert Navarro on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Yuri Berchiche not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists)
Álex Berenguer on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Unai GĂłmez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Key factors

  • Barcelona recently averaged 65.4% possession in their past matches
  • Barcelona dominated all of the last 4 head-to-head encounters against Athletic Club with a 10-1 goal difference
  • The home team is extremely solid defensively with only 0.43 goals conceded per home match at Camp Nou

Risks

  • FC Barcelona's goal production has recently slowed down with 2.2 goals compared to the season average of 2.5
  • Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.95 goals per away match

All probabilities

Result
FC Barcelona52%
Draw30%
Athletic Club18%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Double chance
FC Barcelona or draw82%
Athletic Club or draw48%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%

Most likely scores

1:0
14%
1:1
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
12%
2:1
9%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. FC Barcelona: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
  2. FC Barcelona: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  3. Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  4. FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.1 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (16/10 games, last 29)
  5. Athletic Club with Nico Williams starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 30)
  6. Athletic Club: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Deportivo Alavés: 2 goals (83', 87')

Lineups

FC Barcelona 4-3-3 · Athletic Club 4-2-3-1

FC Barcelona
  • 1 J. Pons
  • 24 E. GarcĂ­a
  • 5 P. CubarsĂ­ Paredes
  • 18 G. MartĂ­n Langreo
  • 12 X. Espart Font
  • 7 F. LĂłpez MarĂ­n
  • 22 M. Bernal Casas
  • 8 P. LĂłpez
  • 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
  • 11 Raphinha
  • 17 A. Gordon
Athletic Club
  • 1 U. SimĂłn Mendibil
  • 15 H. RincĂłn Lumbreras
  • 5 Y. Álvarez LĂłpez
  • 14 A. Laporte
  • 31 J. Louisjean
  • 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
  • 28 P. Canales Urtasun
  • 9 I. Williams Arthuer
  • 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
  • 10 N. Williams Arthuer
  • 11 G. Guruzeta RodrĂ­guez
Substitutes
  • 14 K. Adeyemi
  • 13 W. Szczęsny
  • 23 J. KoundĂ©
  • 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
  • 15 A. Christensen
  • 3 A. Balde MartĂ­nez
  • 16 Rodri
  • 31 E. Aller GonzĂĄlez
  • 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
  • 29 H. Abdel Karim
  • 28 B. PĂ©rez
  • 20 A. Rego Mora
  • 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
  • 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
  • 12 J. Areso Blanco
  • 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
  • 13 ?. Padilla PĂ©rez
  • 19 A. Boiro Boiro
  • 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
  • 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
  • 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
  • 30 I. Monreal Agundez
  • 25 Á. Dias Fernandes

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