đŸ‡Ș🇾

La Liga

FC Barcelona - Athletic Club

08/27/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Barcelona
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Athletic Club
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
FBAC

FC Barcelona

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.30
Attack strength (1.29x league average)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.07
Marcus Rashford not in squad (8 goals, 8 assists)
Robert Lewandowski not in squad (14 goals, 2 assists)
Dani Olmo on the bench (7 goals, 8 assists)

Athletic Club

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.54
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.39
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.09
Robert Navarro on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Yuri Berchiche not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists)
Álex Berenguer on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Unai GĂłmez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Barcelona: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 2
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 4
    FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.1 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (16/10 games, last 29)

  • 5
    Athletic Club with Nico Williams starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 30)

  • 6
    Athletic Club: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Deportivo Alavés: 2 goals (83', 87')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Barcelona recently averaged 65.4% possession in their past matches
  • Barcelona dominated all of the last 4 head-to-head encounters against Athletic Club with a 10-1 goal difference
  • The home team is extremely solid defensively with only 0.43 goals conceded per home match at Camp Nou
Risk Factors
  • FC Barcelona's goal production has recently slowed down with 2.2 goals compared to the season average of 2.5
  • Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.95 goals per away match
Overview

FC Barcelona (6th place, 3 points) host Athletic Club (19th place, 0 points) at Camp Nou

La Liga match on August 27, 2026, 7:00 PM

Barcelona enters as favorites after a winning start to the campaign

Form

FC Barcelona form: WLWLW

They won their last match 5-0 against Elche

Athletic Club form: LLDLL

The visitors suffered a 1-3 defeat to Sevilla in their last match

Home team record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses

Away team record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses

Statistics

Barcelona scores an average of 2.48 goals at home while conceding only 0.43

Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.95 goals on the road while scoring 1.11

Barcelona recorded 10 clean sheets in 23 home matches

Head-to-Head

Barcelona won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches

The goal difference is 10-1 in favor of the Catalans

The last encounter ended in a 1-0 win for Barcelona on March 7, 2026

Key Players

Lamine Yamal has 16 goals and 11 assists for Barcelona

Raphinha has contributed 13 goals and 3 assists

FermĂ­n LĂłpez has 6 goals and 9 assists

Gorka Guruzeta leads Athletic Club with 10 goals and 3 assists

Nico Williams has 6 goals and 3 assists

Oihan Sancet has recorded 4 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Joan GarcĂ­a starts in goal for Barcelona with a season rating of 7.10 and 10 clean sheets

Unai SimĂłn has a rating of 6.78 and played 502 minutes in his last 5 matches

Influences

Camp Nou matches average 2.8 goals per game

Barcelona has a strong home record with 10 clean sheets in 23 home games

The match is played on grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.