Match report â
Valencia â Real Betis0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Valencia
1.50
Total xG
2.64
Real Betis
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Valencia | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | â0.06 | |
| Luis Rioja on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Diego LĂłpez not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| José Gayà on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Filip Ugrinic on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Eray Cömert not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Abde Ezzalzouli not in squad (10 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| HĂ©ctor BellerĂn on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marc Roca on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Valencia is currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.4) according to advanced stats
- Squad impact for Real Betis: Key attacker Abde Ezzalzouli (10 goals, 8 assists) is missing from the lineup
- Home advantage prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 44% probability for a Valencia home win
Risks
- Valencia faces a short recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Vulnerable away defense: Real Betis concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away match
- Squad depth reduced for Valencia: Key players Luis Rioja (3 goals, 6 assists) and Diego LĂłpez (4 goals, 1 assist) are missing
All probabilities
Result
Valencia44%
Draw29%
Real Betis27%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Valencia or draw73%
Real Betis or draw56%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Betis: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Valencia 5-4-1 · Real Betis 4-2-3-1
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 5 C. TĂĄrrega Requeni
- 18 J. GarcĂa VayĂĄ
- 4 M. Diakhaby
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 39 R. Sato
- 2 G. RodrĂguez
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 9 H. Duro
Real Betis
- 1 Ă. VallĂ©s Rosa
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 3 D. Llorente RĂos
- 16 D. GĂłmez
- 23 H. Firpo Adames
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 18 N. Deossa SuĂĄrez
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 9 J. HernĂĄndez SuĂĄrez
Substitutes
- 6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 10 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 14 J. Gayå Peña
- 11 L. Rioja GonzĂĄlez
- 19 D. Raba AntolĂ
- 36 I. CĂłrdoba SĂĄnchez
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 29 A. Panach Olmo
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 15 A. Dieng
- 38 J. DurĂĄ i Soler
- 14 I. Losada Aragunde
- 11 F. GarcĂa Torres
- 33 P. GarcĂa FernĂĄndez
- 22 F. AlarcĂłn SuĂĄrez
- 2 H. BellerĂn Moruno
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 4 Natan
- 19 T. Parrott
- 40 A. de Pablo Casado
- 15 Ă. Fidalgo FernĂĄndez
- 31 M. Gonzålez Pallarés
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account â