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La Liga

Valencia - Celta de Vigo

08/22/2026, 05:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Valencia
1.5
Total xG
3.0
Celta de Vigo
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
VALCDV

Valencia

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.50
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.13
Hugo Duro on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists)
Luis Rioja not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)
Diego LĂłpez not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Eray Cömert not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
49% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

Celta de Vigo

Attack strength (1.39x league average)
+1.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Borja Iglesias on the bench (14 goals, 2 assists)
Williot Swedberg on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists)
Javi Rueda on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Iago Aspas on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Ilaix Moriba on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Fer LĂłpez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 53% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Valencia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Valencia with José Gayà: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Celta de Vigo: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Valencia: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Celta de Vigo: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

27%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Celta de Vigo travels with a severely weakened squad as only 53% of their regular goal threat is active without Borja Iglesias, Williot Swedberg, Javi Rueda, Iago Aspas, Ilaix Moriba, and Fer LĂłpez
  • Valencia is in good scoring form lately, averaging 1.8 goals which is higher than their season average of 1.4
  • The mathematical model predicts a close encounter with a home win probability of 38%
Risk Factors
  • Key players Hugo Duro, Luis Rioja, Diego LĂłpez, and Eray Cömert are missing for Valencia, leaving only 61% of their goal threat active
  • Celta de Vigo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their recent matches
  • Celta de Vigo has dominated recent head-to-head encounters, winning 3 of the last 4 direct meetings
Overview

Valencia hosts Celta de Vigo at the Estadio de Mestalla

La Liga match on August 22, 2026, 7:30 PM

Both teams start the season with 0 points

Valencia is currently in 13th place and Celta de Vigo in 11th place

Form

Valencia's form is LWDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts won their last match 3-1 against FC Barcelona

Celta de Vigo shows a form of WWLDW

Their last match ended with a 1-0 win against Sevilla

Both teams show stable form with 3 wins in their last 5 games

Statistics

Valencia scores 1.21 goals and concedes 1.45 goals on average per season

At home, Valencia scores an average of 1.23 goals and concedes 1.05 goals

Celta de Vigo averages 1.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded away from home

Both teams scored occurred 21 times for Valencia and 24 times for Celta last season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Celta de Vigo leads the historical record with 3 wins to Valencia's 1

The goal ratio stands at 6-11 against Valencia

The last meeting on April 5, 2026, ended 2-3 in favor of Celta de Vigo

Key Players

For Valencia, Javi Guerra, Guido Rodríguez, and José Gayà are key

Javi Guerra scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches with an average rating of 7.35

Celta de Vigo relies on Ferran Jutglà, Hugo Álvarez, and Sergio Carreira

Ferran JutglĂ  recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Stole Dimitrievski starts in goal for Valencia and has kept 4 clean sheets at home

Ionuț Radu guards the net for Celta de Vigo with 6 clean sheets away from home

Both goalkeepers have played vital statistical roles for their teams

Influences

Estadio de Mestalla averages 3.2 goals per game in recent matches

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played here

The grass surface provides standard playing conditions

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