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La Liga

Elche - FC Barcelona

08/23/2026, 07:30 PM

0 : 5
Expected Goals
Elche
1.1
Total xG
3.2
FC Barcelona
2.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

7%

0:3

6%
What influences the xG?
ELCFB

Elche

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap)
-0.18
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.09
Álvaro Rodríguez not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists)
André Silva not in squad (10 goals, 0 assists)
Aleix Febas not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Pedro Bigas not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
58% of goal output missing (only 47% available)

FC Barcelona

Attack strength (1.68x league average)
+1.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.5 season average)
-0.26
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap)
+0.14
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.11
Marcus Rashford not in squad (8 goals, 8 assists)
Robert Lewandowski not in squad (14 goals, 2 assists)
Dani Olmo not in squad (7 goals, 8 assists)
Pedri not in squad (2 goals, 9 assists)
JoĂŁo Cancelo not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    FC Barcelona: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    FC Barcelona with FermĂ­n LĂłpez: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Elche: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Elche: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

18%

Draw

23%

Away Win

60%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

40%

Away or Draw

82%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad shortage: Elche misses key players, leaving only 47% of their seasonal goal threat available
  • Dominant possession: FC Barcelona controlled recent matches with an average of 69% ball possession
  • Clear model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a strong 60% probability for an away win by FC Barcelona
Risk Factors
  • Offensive struggle for Elche: The home team averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Finishing slump: FC Barcelona's goal production is currently lagging at 1.6 compared to their season average of 2.5
Overview

Elche host FC Barcelona at the Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero

La Liga match on August 23, 2026, 7:30 PM

Elche currently sits in 9th place with 1 point from 1 match

Barcelona enter this game in 15th place with 0 games played

Form

Elche showing form DLWDD and a recent 1-1 draw against Deportivo La Coruña

1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

FC Barcelona showing form WWLWL with a loss against Valencia in their last game

3 wins and 2 losses for the visitors in their recent run

Form-code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Elche scored an average of 1.29 goals per game last season while conceding 1.50

Strong home defensive record with only 0.83 goals conceded per game

FC Barcelona excelled offensively with an average of 2.50 goals per match

The Catalans conceded an average of 1.73 goals per away game

Both teams scored in 27 of Elche's 38 league matches

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in the database

FC Barcelona dominated both games with 2 wins

Goal ratio of 6:2 in favor of the Catalans

The last meeting ended in a 3-1 win for Barcelona on January 31, 2026

Key Players

GermĂĄn Valera scored 4 goals and provided 5 assists this season

VĂ­ctor Chust stands out in defense with rising form and a recent goal

Lamine Yamal leads the visitors' attack with 16 goals and 11 assists this season

FermĂ­n LĂłpez has contributed 6 goals and 9 assists for Barcelona so far

Goalkeepers

MatĂ­as Dituro guards the goal for Elche, keeping 8 clean sheets this season

His form shows a slightly declining trend with a recent rating of 6.80

Joan GarcĂ­a starts in goal for Barcelona, having kept 15 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Manuel MartĂ­nez Valero

The historical home record on this pitch shows an average of 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 home games at this stadium

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