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La Liga

Espanyol - Real Madrid

08/22/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Espanyol
1.1
Total xG
2.8
Real Madrid
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
ESPRM

Espanyol

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.70
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap)
-0.11
Carlos Romero not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Ludovic Taillandier not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

Real Madrid

Attack strength (1.58x league average)
+0.84
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.24
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap)
+0.07
Gonzalo GarcĂ­a not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Brahim DĂ­az on the bench (1 goals, 6 assists)
Trent Alexander-Arnold  on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Thiago Pitarch not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
RaĂșl Asencio not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Madrid: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Espanyol with RamĂłn Terrats: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Real Madrid with Kylian Mbappé: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Espanyol: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

28%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Away advantage: Mathematical analysis calculates an away win for Real Madrid with a 47% probability
  • Tactical dominance: Real Madrid controlled an average of 61.6% possession in recent matches
  • Historical superiority: Real Madrid won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches with an 8:2 goal difference
Risk Factors
  • Stalling attack: Real Madrid's goal production slowed recently to an average of 1.8 compared to their season average of 2.2
  • Squad depletion: Espanyol has to play without Carlos Romero (6 goals, 3 assists) and Ludovic Taillandier (3 goals)
Overview

Espanyol hosts Real Madrid at the RCDE Stadium

La Liga match on August 22, 2026, 8:30 PM

Espanyol is currently in 2nd place with 3 points after one game played

Real Madrid plays its first game of the season and is in 15th place

Form

Espanyol's form is LWWDW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Real Madrid's form is WLWWW with 4 wins and 1 loss

Espanyol remains stable after their 3-0 victory against Levante

Real Madrid travels with a streak of three consecutive victories

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Espanyol scored avg 1.13 goals and conceded avg 1.45 goals last season

At home Espanyol scored avg 1.11 goals and conceded avg 1.26 goals

Real Madrid scored avg 2.03 goals and conceded avg 0.92 goals per game

Away from home Real Madrid averaged 2.00 goals per game

The visitors' goal production slowed down recently to an average of 1.8 goals

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches Espanyol has 1 win and Real Madrid has 3 wins

The historical goal difference stands at 2:8 in favor of Real Madrid

The last match on May 3, 2026 ended with a 2-0 victory for Real Madrid

Key Players

Roberto FernĂĄndez scored 3 goals in his last 5 games with a season rating of 6.74

Tyrhys Dolan contributed 2 goals and 5 assists last season

Edu ExpĂłsito recorded 6 assists in 36 games last season

Kylian Mbappé scored 25 goals in 31 matches last season

Vinicius Junior has a season rating of 7.33 with 16 goals and 5 assists

Jude Bellingham scored 5 goals in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Manuel Iori starts in goal for Espanyol

Espanyol's defense kept 10 clean sheets last season

Thibaut Courtois guards the goal for Real Madrid

Real Madrid's defense recorded 14 clean sheets last season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the RCDE Stadium

The last 5 matches at this venue produced an average of 1.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in only 1 of the last 5 games at this stadium

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