Ligue 1
Brest - Le Havre
03/08/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.0
1.0
1:1
11%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Brest
Le Havre
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
62%
Draw
23%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
38%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The analysis projects a home win for Brest with 62% probability and 2.07 expected home goals
- Form Trend: Brest shows a positive form development with three wins and two draws in their last five matches
- Home Strength: Brest concedes only 0.93 goals per home game, while Le Havre allows 3.0 goals away
Risk Factors
- Le Havre's Away Weakness: Le Havre concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
- Low Goal Threat for Le Havre: Le Havre's offense generates an average of only 2.8 shots on target per game
- Venue Characteristics: Stade Francis-Le Ble is historically a venue for low-scoring matches with an average of 1.8 goals per game
Overview
Brest (9th place, 33 points) host Le Havre (13th place, 26 points) at Stade Francis-Le Ble
Ligue 1 match on March 8, 2026, 5:15 PM
The hosts aim to solidify their position in the upper mid-table, while Le Havre seeks to distance themselves from the relegation zone
Form
Brest shows strong form with DWDWW in their last five matches across all competitions
This includes 3 wins and 2 draws, with no losses
The team has achieved two consecutive wins recently
Le Havre has recorded LWWLL in their last five games
The team registered 2 wins and 3 losses
Le Havre has suffered two consecutive losses recently
Statistics
Brest scores an average of 1.33 goals per game and concedes 1.42 goals
At home, the average is 1.29 goals scored and 0.93 goals conceded
Brest kept 6 clean sheets at home
Le Havre scores an average of 0.83 goals per game and concedes 1.25 goals
Away, the average is 0.83 goals scored and 3.0 goals conceded
Le Havre kept 3 clean sheets away
At Stade Francis-Le Ble, an average of 1.8 goals are scored per game
Both teams scored in 0 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 0 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, Brest dominated with 4 wins
Le Havre won one encounter, and there were no draws
Brest scored a total of 6 goals, Le Havre 2 goals
Le Havre won the last meeting 1-0 on October 29, 2025
Key Players
For Brest, Ludovic Ajorque (6 goals, 7 assists, rising form), Romain Del Castillo (7 goals, 2 assists, rising form), and Kamory Doumbia (5 goals, 2 assists) are crucial
For Le Havre, Issa Soumaré (6 goals, 2 assists, rising form), Rassoul Ndiaye (3 goals, 3 assists), and Sofiane Boufal (2 assists, rising form) are important players
RĂ©my Labeau Lascary (4 goals, 1 assist) is not named in the starting lineup
Goalkeepers
Brest goalkeeper Grégoire Coudert made 15 appearances and kept 6 clean sheets in home games
His form is rising
Le Havre goalkeeper Mory Diaw played in 20 games and kept 3 clean sheets in away games
Influences
Brest's home advantage is clear, as they concede an average of only 0.93 goals at home, while Le Havre allows 3.0 goals away
Stade Francis-Le Ble is historically a venue for low-scoring matches with an average of 1.8 goals per game and a 0% BTTS rate in the last five matches