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La Liga

Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés

08/20/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Rayo Vallecano
1.3
Total xG
3.3
Deportivo Alavés
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

7%

2:1

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RVDA

Rayo Vallecano

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-1.18
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-1.01
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Álvaro García on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
Randy Nteka on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Pep Chavarría not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Deportivo Alavés

Attack strength (2.18x league average)
+1.93
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 0.7 league avg)
+0.70
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Denis Suárez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Victor Parada not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Ibrahim Diabaté not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Deportivo Alavés: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Deportivo Alavés: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

25%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

49%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Tactical difference: Alavés recently averaged 5.4 shots on target compared to Rayo's 4.2
  • Form of the visitors: Alavés travels as league leaders following a recent 3-0 victory
  • Statistical outlook: The mathematical model projects an away win probability of 51%
Risk Factors
  • Alavés struggles defensively away from home, conceding an average of 1.94 goals per away game
  • Rayo Vallecano's declining goal production with recently 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.5
Overview

Rayo Vallecano host Deportivo Alavés

La Liga match on August 20, 2026, 9:00 PM

Match played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque

League leaders Alavés visit 17th-placed Rayo

Form

Rayo Vallecano enters with form DWWLL and two consecutive losses

Deportivo Alavés showing form DWWLW with a win in their last match

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Rayo scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1.16 per season

At home, Rayo concedes only 0.68 goals per game on average

Alavés scores 1.19 goals and concedes 1.94 per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches in total

Rayo Vallecano dominated with 4 wins compared to 1 win for Alavés

The last meeting ended 2-1 for Rayo Vallecano on May 23, 2026

Key Players

Jorge de Frutos scored 10 goals for Rayo Vallecano this season

Toni Martínez is Alavés' top threat with 14 goals

Lucas Boyé contributed 11 goals to the away team's attack

Not selected: Álvaro García (4T/5A), Randy Nteka (3T/0A), Pep Chavarría (1T/2A) and Denis Suárez (1T/2A), Victor Parada (0T/3A), Ibrahim Diabaté (2T/0A)

Goalkeepers

Augusto Batalla achieved 12 clean sheets this season

Antonio Sivera kept 5 clean sheets for the visitors

Influences

The match takes place at Estadio Municipal de Butarque on grass

The stadium averages 3.33 goals per match based on previous games

Rayo's strong home defense with only 0.68 goals conceded provides a statistical advantage

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