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La Liga

Atlético de Madrid - Villarreal

08/23/2026, 03:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlético de Madrid
1.8
Total xG
3.2
Villarreal
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ADMVIL

Atlético de Madrid

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.21
Antoine Griezmann not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Álex Baena on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Marcos Llorente on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
Matteo Ruggeri not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

Villarreal

Attack strength (1.44x league average)
+0.53
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.08
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Villarreal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Villarreal: 78% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Villarreal with Alfonso Pedraza: 3.5 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (4 of 7 games)

  • 4
    Atlético de Madrid with Álex Baena: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Villarreal: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a 48% home win probability and 1.83 expected goals for Atlético
  • Villarreal are currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Villarreal averaged a dangerous 4.6 shots on target in their recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Antoine Griezmann, Álex Baena, Marcos Llorente, and Matteo Ruggeri are missing from the squad, leaving only 65% of the goal threat available
  • Villarreal concede a vulnerable average of 2.08 goals per away match
  • Atlético's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.9
Overview

Atlético de Madrid host Villarreal at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano

La Liga match on August 23, 2026, 5:00 PM

Atlético are in 4th place with 3 points, while Villarreal are in 7th with 1 point

An early key clash in the young season

Form

Atlético's form stands at LWWLW with 3 wins and 2 losses from their recent matches

Most recently, they secured a 2-0 home win against Málaga

Villarreal show a record of DLLWD, consisting of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The visitors started their campaign with a 2-2 draw against Racing Santander

Statistics

Atlético de Madrid average 1.62 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded at home

Villarreal are dangerous away from home, averaging 1.85 goals scored but also conceding 2.08 goals

Atlético's home record shows 8 clean sheets in 24 matches, while Villarreal kept only 3 clean sheets in 13 away games

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, the record is even with 1 home win, 1 away win, and 2 draws

The last encounter on May 24, 2026, ended in a clear 5-1 victory for Villarreal

A total of 14 goals were scored in these matches, 6 for Atlético and 8 for Villarreal

Key Players

Ademola Lookman is in focus, having already scored 4 goals this season

The attack features Georges Mikautadze with 13 season goals and Ayoze Pérez with a rising form trend and 3 goals in his last games

Nicolas Pépé also shines with a tally of 8 goals and 8 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Jan Oblak has played 30 times in goal this season, showing a rising form trend

On the other side, Luiz Júnior starts in goal, whose form trend has recently been declining

There are 14 clean sheets for the home side compared to 8 for the visitors

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano

The venue history shows an average of 2.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 of the last 5 matches

Atlético benefit from a stable home defense with only 0.71 goals conceded per home game

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