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La Liga

Osasuna - Levante

08/24/2026, 05:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Osasuna
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Levante
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
OSALEV

Osasuna

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.01
Enzo Boyomo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Valentin Rosier not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
RaĂșl Moro on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

Levante

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.15
Carlos EspĂ­ not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists)
Pablo MartĂ­nez not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Kervin Arriaga not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Jeremy Toljan on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
VĂ­ctor GarcĂ­a on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
44% of goal output missing (only 56% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Osasuna: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Osasuna: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Levante: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Osasuna: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Osasuna with Abel Bretones: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad disadvantage for Levante: Only 56% of the usual starting XI strength available, with key players like Carlos EspĂ­ and Pablo MartĂ­nez missing
  • Tactical offensive threat: Osasuna averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Levante's average of 5.6 shots
  • Mathematical favorite: Predictions show a home win probability of 54% with 1.68 expected goals for Osasuna
Risk Factors
  • Form crisis for Osasuna: The home team suffered five consecutive defeats (LLLLL) in their last five matches
  • Vulnerable away defense: Levante concede an average of 1.94 goals per away match
  • Long break: Osasuna play their first competitive match after 93 days without a game
Overview

Osasuna host Levante at the Estadio El Sadar

La Liga match on August 24, 2026, 7:30 PM

Osasuna sit in 16th place with 0 points, while Levante are 20th with 0 points

Both teams aim to prevent a poor start to the new campaign

Form

Osasuna are in a severe crisis with a form of LLLLL

The home side has suffered 5 consecutive defeats

Levante travel with a form of WWWLL

After 3 wins, the visitors recently suffered 2 consecutive losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Osasuna averaged 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded last season

At home, Osasuna are defensively stronger, conceding only 0.89 goals per game

Levante conceded an average of 1.61 goals, increasing to 1.94 in away games

Osasuna's home matches showed a high BTTS rate of 100% in recent fixtures

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head encounters between the teams

The record is perfectly even with 1 win for each side

The last meeting ended in a 3-2 victory for Levante on May 8, 2026

In total, Osasuna scored 4 goals and Levante scored 3 goals

Key Players

Ante Budimir stood out with 17 goals and a season rating of 6.98

Rubén García contributed 2 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 6.91

Alejandro Catena solidifies the defense with 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.87

IvĂĄn Romero scored 7 goals this season with a rating of 6.87

Jon Ander Olasagasti impresses with 1 goal and 5 assists with a rating of 6.82

AdriĂĄn Dela scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist with a rating of 6.96

Goalkeepers

Sergio Herrera made 37 appearances with 7 clean sheets and a rating of 6.84

Mathew Ryan played 36 matches, keeping 9 clean sheets with a rating of 7.13

Both goalkeepers have recently shown a declining form trend

Influences

Estadio El Sadar provides Osasuna with familiar conditions on natural grass

The venueStats show an average of 2.8 goals per match at this stadium

Osasuna's home advantage is highlighted by a solid defensive record of only 0.89 goals conceded on average

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