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La Liga

Athletic Club - Sevilla

08/22/2026, 03:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Athletic Club
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Sevilla
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ACSEV

Athletic Club

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.05
Robert Navarro on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Mikel Jauregizar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Unai Gómez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Alejandro Rego on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Sevilla

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 0.6 league avg)
+0.90
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.44
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Djibril Sow not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Rubén Vargas not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)
Isaac Romero on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
José Ángel Carmona on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Neal Maupay not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Kike Salas not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
70% of goal output missing (only 38% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Sevilla: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Athletic Club with Álex Berenguer: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Sevilla: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    Athletic Club: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

31%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad depletion for Sevilla: Only 39% of the usual starting XI attacking threat is available
  • Offensive upward trend: Athletic Club is currently averaging more goals (1.4) than their season average (1.2)
  • Historical advantage: Athletic Club dominated the recent head-to-head matches with 3 wins out of 5
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability on the road: Sevilla concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away match
  • Unstable defense: Athletic Club conceded an average of 2.0 goals in recent matches
Overview

Athletic Club host Sevilla

La Liga match on August 22, 2026, 5:00 PM

The game will be played at San Mamés Barria

Athletic Club is currently in 16th place with 0 points

Sevilla occupies 4th place with 3 points

Form

Athletic Club form: WLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Athletic Club recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Sevilla form: WWLLW

Sevilla captured 3 wins and suffered 2 defeats recently

Sevilla won their last match 2-1 against Rayo Vallecano

Statistics

Athletic Club scores an average of 1.13 goals and concedes 1.53 goals per match this season

At home, Athletic Club averages 1.16 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded

Sevilla scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 1.58 goals

In away matches, Sevilla concedes an average of 1.94 goals

Head-to-Head

There are 5 head-to-head matches in the database

Athletic Club won 3 encounters, Sevilla recorded 1 win, with 1 draw

The last direct duel ended 2-1 in favor of Sevilla on January 24, 2026

The overall goal record is 8:6 in favor of Athletic Club

Key Players

Gorka Guruzeta scored 10 goals and provided 3 assists

Iñaki Williams contributed 3 goals and 6 assists so far

Yuri Berchiche set up 6 goals this season

Oso recorded 2 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 6.83

Peque Fernández has 2 goals and 1 assist to date

Andrés Castrín registered 1 goal with an average rating of 6.92

Goalkeepers

Unai Simón guards the goal for Athletic Club with 6 clean sheets

Odysseas Vlachodimos plays in goal for Sevilla and also registered 6 clean sheets

Unai Simón has a rating of 6.78, while Odysseas Vlachodimos is at 6.74

Influences

The match will take place on natural grass at San Mamés Barria

The venue averages 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of Athletic Club's home matches

Athletic Club concedes an average of only 1.11 goals at home

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