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La Liga

Real Sociedad - Espanyol

08/29/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Sociedad
1.9
Total xG
3.0
Espanyol
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
RSESP

Real Sociedad

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Takefusa Kubo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)

Espanyol

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.16
Carlos Romero not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Ludovic Taillandier not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (13 points lost)

  • 2
    Espanyol: 3.5 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)

  • 3
    Real Sociedad: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Espanyol: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Espanyol: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

25%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 57% for Real Sociedad
  • Offensive upward trend: Espanyol currently scores more goals with an average of 1.8 than their season average of 1.3
  • Historical dominance: Real Sociedad did not lose any of the last four head-to-head matches against Espanyol
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: Real Sociedad has only 3 days of rest since their last match compared to Espanyol with 7 days
  • Stagnant offense: Real Sociedad's goal production is recently at only 1.2 goals on average compared to their season average of 1.6
  • Low threat: The hosts averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Real Sociedad (20th place, 0 points) host Espanyol (9th place, 3 points) at the Anoeta Stadium

La Liga match on August 29, 2026, 7:00 PM

Real Sociedad is under pressure at the bottom of the table after two defeats

Form

Real Sociedad in DLDLL form (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) with W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The hosts recently lost 1-4 against Real Madrid

Espanyol shows WWDWL form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

The visitors recently lost 1-2 against Real Madrid

Statistics

Real Sociedad scored 59 goals (Avg. 1.55) and conceded 61 goals (Avg. 1.61) this season

Home record shows 37 goals scored and 31 conceded in 24 games

Espanyol scored 43 goals (Avg. 1.13) and conceded 55 goals (Avg. 1.45) so far

Away from home, the visitors conceded 31 goals in 19 matches (Avg. 1.63)

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Real Sociedad and 2 draws

Goal ratio is 6-4 in favor of the hosts

The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Mikel Oyarzabal scored 15 goals in 34 appearances

Orri Óskarsson contributed 9 goals in 20 matches

Sergio GĂłmez recorded 6 assists in 35 games

Not nominated: Takefusa Kubo

Roberto FernĂĄndez scored 7 goals this season

Tyrhys Dolan contributed 5 assists in 36 matches

Edu ExpĂłsito recorded 6 assists in 36 appearances

Not nominated: Carlos Romero, Ludovic Taillandier

Goalkeepers

Álex Remiro starts in goal for Real Sociedad and recorded a rising form trend

Real Sociedad kept 3 clean sheets this season, while Espanyol has 10 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Anoeta Stadium

Venue statistics show an average of 4.0 goals per match with 60% BTTS and over 2.5 rates

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