DumbleScore
Match report →
La Liga08/29/2026, 05:00 PM

Real Sociedad – Espanyol2 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Real Sociedad
1.93
Total xG
2.95
Espanyol
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorReal SociedadEspanyol
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)+0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)+0.16
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)+0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)−0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)−0.11
Takefusa Kubo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Carlos Romero not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Ludovic Taillandier not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Key factors

  • Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 57% for Real Sociedad
  • Offensive upward trend: Espanyol currently scores more goals with an average of 1.8 than their season average of 1.3
  • Historical dominance: Real Sociedad did not lose any of the last four head-to-head matches against Espanyol

Risks

  • Fatigue: Real Sociedad has only 3 days of rest since their last match compared to Espanyol with 7 days
  • Stagnant offense: Real Sociedad's goal production is recently at only 1.2 goals on average compared to their season average of 1.6
  • Low threat: The hosts averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games

All probabilities

Result
Real Sociedad57%
Draw25%
Espanyol18%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Real Sociedad or draw82%
Espanyol or draw43%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%

Most likely scores

1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Real Sociedad: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (13 points lost)
  2. Espanyol: 3.5 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
  3. Real Sociedad: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
  4. Espanyol: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
  5. Espanyol: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Lineups

Real Sociedad 4-4-2 · Espanyol 4-2-3-1

Real Sociedad
  • 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
  • 2 J. Aramburu
  • 5 I. ZubeldĂ­a Elorza
  • 31 J. MartĂ­n Vicente
  • 17 S. GĂłmez
  • 24 L. Sučić
  • 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
  • 18 C. Soler BarragĂĄn
  • 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
  • 9 O. Óskarsson
  • 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Espanyol
  • 13 M. Dmitrović
  • 23 O. El Hilali
  • 16 V. DrkuĆĄić
  • 14 U. NĂșñez Gestoso
  • 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
  • 4 U. GonzĂĄlez de Zarate QuirĂłs
  • 8 E. ExpĂłsito JaĂ©n
  • 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
  • 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
  • 24 T. Dolan
  • 9 R. FernĂĄndez JaĂ©n
Substitutes
  • 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
  • 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
  • 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
  • 23 A. Zakharyan
  • 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
  • 3 A. Muñoz CapellĂĄn
  • 14 T. Kubo
  • 19 M. Sarr
  • 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
  • 29 A. Marchal Garcia
  • 27 G. Carrera Zarranz
  • 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
  • 5 C. Riedel
  • 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
  • 17 J. Carreras PagĂšs
  • 11 P. Milla Peña
  • 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
  • 18 M. FernĂĄndez SĂĄnchez
  • 26 R. BauzĂ  Sureda
  • 3 Q. Hartman
  • 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
  • 31 L. Serred
  • 32 J. Lopez Galvez
  • 27 A. Timera

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.

Create Account →