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La Liga

Osasuna - Getafe

08/31/2026, 05:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Osasuna
1.1
Total xG
1.8
Getafe
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:0

16%

1:1

14%

0:1

10%

2:0

10%
What influences the xG?
OSAGET

Osasuna

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.27
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 7, 10 places gap)
-0.12
Enzo Boyomo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Valentin Rosier not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Getafe

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.66
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 17, 10 places gap)
+0.03
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.01
Abdel Abqar not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Osasuna: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')

  • 2
    Getafe: 3.4 cards per game (37 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Osasuna: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 4
    Osasuna: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 5
    Osasuna: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

35%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

56%

Under 1.5

44%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

36%

No

64%

Key Factors
  • Tactical metrics: Osasuna averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Mathematical prediction: The calculation model forecasts a home win with a 43% probability
  • Low goal threat: Getafe scores rarely on the road, averaging only 0.82 goals per away game this season
Risk Factors
  • Abdel Abqar is missing, leaving only 60% of Getafe's usual offensive danger available
  • The model predicts a low-scoring game with only a 27% probability for over 2.5 goals
  • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Osasuna only managed 1 win against Getafe
Overview

Osasuna (8th place, 4 points) host Getafe (13th place, 3 points) at the Estadio El Sadar

La Liga match on August 31, 2026, 5:30 PM

Both teams aim to establish themselves in the mid-table

Form

Osasuna holds the form LLLDW with a win in their last match

Getafe comes in with the form WLWWL

Osasuna's goalscoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.5

Statistics

Osasuna scored 1.16 goals per game and conceded 1.32 this season

Getafe averages 0.84 goals scored and 1.00 conceded

Osasuna concedes only 0.89 goals per game at home on average

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Getafe won 2 games, Osasuna secured 1 win, and 1 ended in a draw

The last meeting ended in a 1:0 victory for Getafe

Key Players

Ante Budimir shines with 17 season goals and a rating of 6.98

Rubén García contributed 2 goals and 5 assists

Alejandro Catena stabilizes with a rating of 6.87

MartĂ­n Satriano has scored 6 season goals with a rating of 6.96

Kiko FemenĂ­a recorded 1 goal and 1 assist

David Soria convinces with a strong goalkeeper rating of 6.94

Goalkeepers

Sergio Herrera plays for Osasuna and kept 7 clean sheets this season

David Soria recorded 12 clean sheets for Getafe

David Soria shows a rising form trend with a recent rating of 7.56

Influences

Matches at Estadio El Sadar averaged 2.4 goals in recent games

Osasuna's home win is mathematically calculated at 43%

The model predicts a tight match with 1.10 expected home goals and 0.71 away goals

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