Match report →
Osasuna – Getafe1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Osasuna
1.10
Total xG
1.81
Getafe
0.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Osasuna | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.66 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 7, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 17, 10 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Enzo Boyomo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Valentin Rosier not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Abdel Abqar not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 60% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical metrics: Osasuna averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Mathematical prediction: The calculation model forecasts a home win with a 43% probability
- Low goal threat: Getafe scores rarely on the road, averaging only 0.82 goals per away game this season
Risks
- Abdel Abqar is missing, leaving only 60% of Getafe's usual offensive danger available
- The model predicts a low-scoring game with only a 27% probability for over 2.5 goals
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Osasuna only managed 1 win against Getafe
All probabilities
Result
Osasuna43%
Draw35%
Getafe22%
Goals
Over 1.556%
Under 1.544%
Over 2.527%
Under 2.573%
Over 3.511%
Under 3.589%
Double chance
Osasuna or draw78%
Getafe or draw57%
No draw65%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
0:0
18%
1:0
16%
1:1
14%
0:1
10%
2:0
10%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Osasuna: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')
- Getafe: 3.4 cards per game (37 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Osasuna: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Osasuna: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Osasuna: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Osasuna 4-2-3-1 · Getafe 4-4-2
Osasuna
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 5 J. Herrando Oroz
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 14 R. García Santos
- 10 A. Oroz
- 16 M. Gómez Bordonado
- 17 A. Budimir
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 17 F. Femenía Far
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 24 Z. Romero
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 16 F. Gracia
- 23 O. Mangala
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 19 E. Ünal
- 10 M. Satriano
Substitutes
- 15 D. Rico Salguero
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 9 R. García de Haro
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 21 J. Dubasin
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
- 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
- 48 R. Yeboah
- 30 A. Bonel Aicua
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 1 J. Letáček
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 28 A. Risco
- 32 J. Pérez del Amo
- 26 J. Valou
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 30 ?. López
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