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La Liga

Sevilla - Atlético de Madrid

08/29/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Sevilla
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Atlético de Madrid
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SEVADM

Sevilla

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.08
Djibril Sow not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Oso not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
José Ángel Carmona on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
66% of goal output missing (only 34% available)

Atlético de Madrid

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap)
+0.05
Antoine Griezmann not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Koke  on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Robin Le Normand not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sevilla: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Sevilla: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Sevilla: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Atlético de Madrid with Giuliano Simeone starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (20/6 games, last 29)

  • 5
    Sevilla: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Sevilla has only 34% of their usual goal-scoring strength available, missing Djibril Sow, Oso, and José Ángel Carmona
  • Scoring trend divergence: Sevilla is currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their seasonal average (1.3), while Atlético's goal production has slowed down to 1.6 from a seasonal average of 1.9
  • Tactical metrics: Sevilla averaged 4.2 shots on target with 41.6% possession recently, while Atlético averaged 4.4 shots on target with 49.2% possession
Risk Factors
  • Heavily depleted Sevilla squad with only 34% active starting XI offensive power
  • Vulnerable Atlético away defense, conceding 1.93 goals per away match on average
  • Atlético's historical upper hand with 3 victories out of the last 4 direct meetings
Overview

Sevilla (4th place, 6 points) host Atlético de Madrid (6th place, 4 points) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

La Liga match on August 29, 2026, 9:30 PM

Upper-table clash between two ambitious clubs

Form

Sevilla in recent form of WLLWW with two consecutive victories

3 wins and 2 losses in their last matches

Atlético de Madrid holding a form of WWLWD

Most recently a 2-2 draw against Villarreal and a 2-0 win over Málaga

Statistics

Sevilla averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded per match this season

At home, they scored an average of 1.2 and conceded 1.25 goals

Atlético de Madrid averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded overall

In away matches, Atlético's defense is weaker, conceding an average of 1.93 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent history

Atlético de Madrid dominate with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Sevilla

Goal difference of 10-6 in favor of Atlético

The last meeting on April 11, 2026, ended in a 2-1 home victory for Sevilla

Key Players

Lucien Agoumé anchors Sevilla's midfield with an average rating of 6.83

Peque Fernández has scored 2 goals for the home side this season

Giuliano Simeone leads Atlético's attack with 4 goals and 6 assists

Álex Baena contributed 2 goals and 3 assists for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Odysseas Vlachodimos features in goal for Sevilla with a 6.74 rating

Jan Oblak commands Atlético's goal with 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán on a grass pitch

The stadium statistics show an average of 2.2 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of the last 5 games at this venue

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