Match report →
Sevilla – Atlético de Madrid1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Sevilla
1.49
Total xG
2.57
Atlético de Madrid
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sevilla | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Djibril Sow not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Oso not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| José Ángel Carmona on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 34% available) | ||
| Antoine Griezmann not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Koke on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Robin Le Normand not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Sevilla has only 34% of their usual goal-scoring strength available, missing Djibril Sow, Oso, and José Ángel Carmona
- Scoring trend divergence: Sevilla is currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their seasonal average (1.3), while Atlético's goal production has slowed down to 1.6 from a seasonal average of 1.9
- Tactical metrics: Sevilla averaged 4.2 shots on target with 41.6% possession recently, while Atlético averaged 4.4 shots on target with 49.2% possession
Risks
- Heavily depleted Sevilla squad with only 34% active starting XI offensive power
- Vulnerable Atlético away defense, conceding 1.93 goals per away match on average
- Atlético's historical upper hand with 3 victories out of the last 4 direct meetings
All probabilities
Result
Sevilla45%
Draw29%
Atlético de Madrid26%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Sevilla or draw74%
Atlético de Madrid or draw55%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sevilla: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Sevilla: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sevilla: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Atlético de Madrid with Giuliano Simeone starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (20/6 games, last 29)
- Sevilla: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Sevilla 4-2-3-1 · Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 4 Kike Salas
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 6 L. Agoume
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 30 M. Sierra Ortega
- 10 G. Fernández Castellano
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 9 R. Ure
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 11 A. Lookman
- 7 K. Lee
- 10 A. Rodríguez
Substitutes
- 12 A. Sangante
- 16 I. Romero Bernal
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 28 M. Bueno Sebastián
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 34 I. Ortín Muñoz
- 27 N. Guillén Peguero
- 37 I. Sow
- 26 M. Castillo Rodríguez
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 2 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 21 C. Romero
- 12 C. Martín Domínguez
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 29 M. Llorente Cubo
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
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