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La Liga

Deportivo La Coruña - Valencia

08/30/2026, 05:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Deportivo La Coruña
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Valencia
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
DLCVAL

Deportivo La Coruña

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.85
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.20

Valencia

Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.20
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Hugo Duro on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists)
Diego López not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Guido Rodríguez not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Deportivo La Coruña: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 2
    Deportivo La Coruña: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 6 games. Against Samano: 2 goals (80', 89')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

31%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Highly balanced matchup: The mathematical model estimates a 35% probability for a home win and 34% for an away win
  • Valencia's lineup absences: Not nominated for the starting eleven are Hugo Duro with 10 goals, Diego López with 4 goals, and Guido Rodríguez with 4 goals
  • Counter-attacking tactical focus: Both teams recently played counter-oriented styles averaging 4.0 shots on target per match
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness of Valencia: The visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Limited data availability regarding home team player form and historical head-to-head statistics
Overview

Deportivo La Coruña host Valencia at Estadio Abanca-Riazor

La Liga match on August 30, 2026, 7:30 PM

Early bottom-table clash between 13th and 17th position

Both teams are still searching for their first win of the season

Form

Deportivo La Coruña form: WWLDD

The hosts recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss recently

The home team finished with two consecutive draws

Valencia form: DWWDL with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss

The visitors suffered a defeat in their most recent match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Deportivo La Coruña averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per match this season

In home matches, the hosts average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded

Valencia's season average stands at 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded per game

In away matches, Valencia concedes an average of 2.0 goals

The hosts' goal production is currently stagnant, averaging 1.0 goal compared to their season average of 1.7

Valencia is scoring more frequently recently with 2.0 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.4

Key Players

Javi Guerra with 4 goals and 6 assists this season, showing a rising form trend with 3 goals in the last 5 matches

Luis Rioja has recorded 3 goals and 6 assists during the current campaign

Umar Sadiq contributed 4 goals and 2 assists so far but shows a declining form trend

Goalkeepers

Leo Román is in goal for Deportivo La Coruña, which has recorded 2 clean sheets so far this season

Stole Dimitrievski is in goal for Valencia and has recorded 9 clean sheets this season, showing a declining form trend recently

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Abanca-Riazor

The venue's historical average is 1.5 goals per match, with none of the last 4 games exceeding 2.5 goals

Both teams scored in half of the matches played at this stadium

Valencia's away weakness is reflected in an average of 2.0 goals conceded per away game

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