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Deportivo La Coruña – Valencia3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo La Coruña
1.20
Total xG
2.39
Valencia
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo La Coruña | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.85 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Hugo Duro on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Diego López not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Guido Rodríguez not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 80% available) |
Key factors
- Highly balanced matchup: The mathematical model estimates a 35% probability for a home win and 34% for an away win
- Valencia's lineup absences: Not nominated for the starting eleven are Hugo Duro with 10 goals, Diego López with 4 goals, and Guido Rodríguez with 4 goals
- Counter-attacking tactical focus: Both teams recently played counter-oriented styles averaging 4.0 shots on target per match
Risks
- Away weakness of Valencia: The visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Limited data availability regarding home team player form and historical head-to-head statistics
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo La Coruña35%
Draw31%
Valencia34%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Deportivo La Coruña or draw66%
Valencia or draw65%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo La Coruña: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Deportivo La Coruña: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 6 games. Against Samano: 2 goals (80', 89')
Lineups
Deportivo La Coruña 4-4-2 · Valencia 5-4-1
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 22 B. Ede
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 16 L. Amatucci
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
- 7 P. Aubameyang
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 22 A. Martinez
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 4 M. Diakhaby
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 39 R. Sato
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
Substitutes
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
- 9 Z. Eddahchouri
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 3 A. Comas Freixas
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 1 G. Parreño Boix
- 24 J. Esmoris Tasende
- 34 T. Gijselhart
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 20 D. Foulquier
- 9 H. Duro
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 36 I. Córdoba Sánchez
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 29 A. Panach Olmo
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 15 A. Dieng
- 38 J. Durá i Soler
- 33 Aaron Mayol
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