Match report →
Real Madrid – Málaga4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Real Madrid
2.01
Total xG
2.91
Málaga
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Madrid | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.55 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| Álvaro Carreras on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 62% probability for a home win
- Offensive dominance: Real Madrid averaged 7.0 shots on target per match recently
- Form advantage: The hosts are on a winning run with 5 consecutive victories
Risks
- Limited data on historical head-to-head matches between these two teams
- Limited data on the detailed player statistics for the visitors
All probabilities
Result
Real Madrid62%
Draw23%
Málaga15%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw85%
Málaga or draw38%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
Lineups
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · Málaga 4-4-2
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 7 V. Júnior
- 10 K. Mbappé
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
Substitutes
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 15 A. Guler
- 13 A. Lunin
- 16 I. Konaté
- 20 B. Silva
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 29 J. Cestero Sancho
- 31 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 33 M. Rivas Lagos
- 36 A. Ciria Flores
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 19 J. Díaz Espósito
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 7 H. Abaida
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 24 J. Lobete Cienfuegos
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 32 J. Fernández Martin
- 28 J. Otu
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