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La Liga

Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal

08/28/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Deportivo Alavés
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Villarreal
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
DAVIL

Deportivo Alavés

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Denis Suárez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Victor Parada not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)

Villarreal

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.14
Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.07
Alberto Moleiro on the bench (10 goals, 5 assists)
Ayoze Pérez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Villarreal: 72% of all goals in the first half (18 of 25, last 12 games)

  • 2
    Villarreal: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 3
    Villarreal: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Deportivo Alavés: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Strong offenses: Both teams were active recently, averaging 5.2 shots on target per match for Alavés and 5.4 for Villarreal
  • Villarreal's rising trend: The visitors are scoring more recently, averaging 2.2 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.8
  • Balanced prediction: The model calculates an almost identical win probability of 35% for Villarreal and 35% for Alavés
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable away defense: Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match this season
  • Shorter recovery time: Villarreal enter the match with only 5 days of rest since their last game, compared to 8 days for Alavés
  • Missing key players: Alberto Moleiro (10 goals, 5 assists) and Ayoze Pérez (5 goals, 4 assists) are missing from Villarreal's squad
Overview

Deportivo Alavés host Villarreal at the Estadio de Mendizorroza

La Liga match on August 28, 2026, 9:30 PM

Alavés sit in 5th place with 4 points, while Villarreal are in 10th place with 2 points

Form

Alavés form: WWLWD with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Villarreal form: LLWDD with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Alavés recently drew against Rayo Vallecano

Villarreal recorded a recent draw against Atlético de Madrid

Statistics

Alavés scored 44 goals and conceded 56 this season

Villarreal scored 72 goals and conceded 46

Alavés averaged 1.14 goals scored per home game

Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in the database

1 win for Deportivo Alavés, 2 wins for Villarreal, and 1 draw

Goal difference of 3 to 7 goals in favor of Villarreal

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on March 13, 2026

Key Players

Toni Martínez (14 goals), Lucas Boyé (11 goals), and Nahuel Tenaglia (2 goals) lead Alavés

Georges Mikautadze (13 goals, 6 assists), Nicolas Pépé (8 goals, 8 assists), and Gerard Moreno (10 goals) represent Villarreal

Mikautadze shows rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Antonio Sivera guards the goal for Alavés and kept 5 clean sheets

Luiz Júnior starts in goal for Villarreal with 8 clean sheets recorded

Influences

The Estadio de Mendizorroza averages 3.2 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 home games on natural grass

The venue shows an Over 2.5 goals rate of 80%

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