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Deportivo Alavés – Villarreal1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Alavés
1.24
Total xG
2.50
Villarreal
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Alavés | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Denis Suárez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Victor Parada not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alberto Moleiro on the bench (10 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Ayoze Pérez on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Strong offenses: Both teams were active recently, averaging 5.2 shots on target per match for Alavés and 5.4 for Villarreal
- Villarreal's rising trend: The visitors are scoring more recently, averaging 2.2 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.8
- Balanced prediction: The model calculates an almost identical win probability of 35% for Villarreal and 35% for Alavés
Risks
- Vulnerable away defense: Villarreal concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match this season
- Shorter recovery time: Villarreal enter the match with only 5 days of rest since their last game, compared to 8 days for Alavés
- Missing key players: Alberto Moleiro (10 goals, 5 assists) and Ayoze Pérez (5 goals, 4 assists) are missing from Villarreal's squad
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Alavés34%
Draw30%
Villarreal35%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Deportivo Alavés or draw65%
Villarreal or draw66%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Villarreal: 72% of all goals in the first half (18 of 25, last 12 games)
- Villarreal: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Villarreal: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Deportivo Alavés: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Deportivo Alavés 5-3-2 · Villarreal 4-4-2
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 16 V. Koski
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 18 M. Rodriguez Ulacia
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 15 L. Boyé
Villarreal
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 8 J. Foyth
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 19 N. Pépé
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 18 P. Gueye
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 9 G. Mikautadze
Substitutes
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 20 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 2 N. Valentini
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
- 2 L. Costa
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 24 N. Saliba
- 26 Carlos Macià
- 5 A. Diatta
- 3 A. Freeman
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