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La Liga08/30/2026, 07:30 PM

Celta de Vigo – Athletic Club0 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Celta de Vigo
1.09
Total xG
2.14
Athletic Club
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorCelta de VigoAthletic Club
Attack weakness (0.63x league average)−0.84
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)+0.51
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.34+0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)−0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)−0.07
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)+0.03
Iago Aspas on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Javi Rueda on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Fer LĂłpez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 70% available)
Gorka Guruzeta on the bench (10 goals, 3 assists)
Mikel Jauregizar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Unai GĂłmez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Key factors

  • Celta de Vigo is squad-weakened and must cope without key offensive contributors Iago Aspas, Javi Rueda, and Fer LĂłpez, leaving only about 70% of their usual goal threat
  • Athletic Club showed more direct play in recent matches, averaging 4.6 shots on target per game compared to Celta de Vigo's 3.2
  • Both offenses are struggling recently as Celta de Vigo averages 1.3 goals (season average 1.5) and Athletic Club is down to 0.8 goals (season average 1.2)

Risks

  • Both Celta de Vigo and Athletic Club have to cope with a short preparation window of only 3 days since their last match
  • Athletic Club showed defensive vulnerabilities on the road last season, conceding a high average of 1.95 goals per away game
  • Celta de Vigo created very little threat recently, averaging just 3.2 shots on target per match

All probabilities

Result
Celta de Vigo34%
Draw33%
Athletic Club32%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw68%
Athletic Club or draw66%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%

Most likely scores

1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
11%
0:1
11%
2:1
7%
0:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.2 (18/5 games, last 30)
  2. Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  3. Athletic Club: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Deportivo Alavés: 2 goals (83', 87')

Lineups

Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Athletic Club 4-2-3-1

Celta de Vigo
  • 13 I. Radu
  • 20 J. RodrĂ­guez Galiano
  • 2 C. Starfelt
  • 4 A. Faye
  • 15 Á. NĂșñez Cobo
  • 14 A. Febas PĂ©rez
  • 6 Ilaix Moriba
  • 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
  • 19 W. Swedberg
  • 16 H. Sotos
  • 9 F. JutlgĂ  Blanc
Athletic Club
  • 1 U. SimĂłn Mendibil
  • 12 J. Areso Blanco
  • 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
  • 14 A. Laporte
  • 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
  • 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
  • 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
  • 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
  • 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
  • 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
  • 9 I. Williams Arthuer
Substitutes
  • 17 J. Rueda GarcĂ­a
  • 11 P. DurĂĄn FernĂĄndez
  • 10 I. Aspas Juncal
  • 29 Y. Lago Amil
  • 39 J. El-Abdellaoui
  • 8 M. RomĂĄn GonzĂĄlez
  • 23 H. Álvarez AntĂșnez
  • 22 J. GalĂĄn Gil
  • 1 A. Bayındır
  • 28 A. Antañón Vieites
  • 30 H. Garcia Hoz
  • 27 Q. Ribes
  • 15 H. RincĂłn Lumbreras
  • 20 A. Rego Mora
  • 5 Y. Álvarez LĂłpez
  • 10 N. Williams Arthuer
  • 11 G. Guruzeta RodrĂ­guez
  • 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
  • 13 ?. Padilla PĂ©rez
  • 19 A. Boiro Boiro
  • 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
  • 28 P. Canales Urtasun
  • 25 Á. Dias Fernandes
  • 31 J. Louisjean

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