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La Liga

Celta de Vigo - Athletic Club

08/30/2026, 07:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Celta de Vigo
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Athletic Club
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

11%

0:1

11%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
CDVAC

Celta de Vigo

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.84
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Iago Aspas on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Javi Rueda on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Fer LĂłpez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

Athletic Club

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.51
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Gorka Guruzeta on the bench (10 goals, 3 assists)
Mikel Jauregizar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Unai GĂłmez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.2 (18/5 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Athletic Club: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Deportivo Alavés: 2 goals (83', 87')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

33%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Celta de Vigo is squad-weakened and must cope without key offensive contributors Iago Aspas, Javi Rueda, and Fer LĂłpez, leaving only about 70% of their usual goal threat
  • Athletic Club showed more direct play in recent matches, averaging 4.6 shots on target per game compared to Celta de Vigo's 3.2
  • Both offenses are struggling recently as Celta de Vigo averages 1.3 goals (season average 1.5) and Athletic Club is down to 0.8 goals (season average 1.2)
Risk Factors
  • Both Celta de Vigo and Athletic Club have to cope with a short preparation window of only 3 days since their last match
  • Athletic Club showed defensive vulnerabilities on the road last season, conceding a high average of 1.95 goals per away game
  • Celta de Vigo created very little threat recently, averaging just 3.2 shots on target per match
Overview

Celta de Vigo (16th place, 1 point) host Athletic Club (20th place, 0 points) at the Estadio de BalaĂ­dos

La Liga match on August 30, 2026, 7:30 PM

Both teams are already under pressure after a weak start to the season

Form

Celta de Vigo shows a form of LDWDL and recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches

Most recently the home side suffered a 1-2 defeat against Osasuna

Athletic Club travels with a form of LDLLL and a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

The visitors recently suffered a 0-2 away defeat against FC Barcelona

Statistics

Last season Celta de Vigo averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per match

At home, the team averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

Athletic Club scored an average of 1.13 goals and conceded 1.53 goals per game

Away from home, the visitors conceded a high average of 1.95 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Celta de Vigo recorded 1 win, Athletic Club won 2, and 1 match ended in a draw

The overall goal ratio in these encounters stands at 5-6

Their most recent duel on May 17, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Ferran JutglĂ  stood out with 9 goals and 3 assists in 30 appearances with a 6.91 rating

Williot Swedberg contributed 5 goals and 5 assists with a 6.74 rating

Ilaix Moriba recorded 2 goals and 3 assists in 36 matches with a 6.83 rating

For the visitors, Iñaki Williams recorded 3 goals and 6 assists in 30 games with a 6.69 rating

Robert Navarro contributed 6 goals and 1 assist in 32 matches with a 6.7 rating

Oihan Sancet registered 4 goals in 28 games with a 6.71 rating

Goalkeepers

Ionuț Radu made 38 appearances last season with an average rating of 6.89

Unai SimĂłn stood in goal 37 times with an average rating of 6.78

Ionuț Radu recorded 10 clean sheets, while Unai SimĂłn kept 6 clean sheets

Influences

The Estadio de BalaĂ­dos saw a high average of 3.4 goals per match in recent fixtures

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games at this venue

The surface is natural grass

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