DumbleScore
Match report →
La Liga08/29/2026, 03:00 PM

Levante – Real Betis5 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Levante
1.64
Total xG
2.61
Real Betis
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorLevanteReal Betis
Attack strength (1.4x league average)+0.57
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)+0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 5, 11 places gap)−0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.11
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)−0.11
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 16, 11 places gap)+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)−0.03
Carlos EspĂ­ not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists)
Pablo MartĂ­nez not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Kervin Arriaga not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Jeremy Toljan on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 60% available)
Abde Ezzalzouli on the bench (10 goals, 8 assists)
Pablo Fornals on the bench (9 goals, 6 assists)
Cucho HernĂĄndez on the bench (11 goals, 3 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 45% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Only 46% of attacking threat available, without Abde Ezzalzouli, Pablo Fornals, Cucho HernĂĄndez
  • Levante recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target
  • Mathematical models favor Levante at home with a 51% win probability

Risks

  • Carlos EspĂ­, Pablo MartĂ­nez, Kervin Arriaga, Jeremy Toljan missing, only 61% of attacking threat available
  • Away struggles with Real Betis conceding an average of 1.81 goals per away match last season
  • Levante recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target

All probabilities

Result
Levante51%
Draw28%
Real Betis21%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Levante or draw79%
Real Betis or draw49%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
5:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Levante: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
  2. Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  3. Levante: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

Lineups

Levante 4-1-4-1 · Real Betis 4-2-3-1

Levante
  • 13 M. Ryan
  • 29 N. PĂ©rez GĂłmez
  • 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
  • 2 A. Mandi
  • 23 M. SĂĄnchez De La Peña
  • 20 O. Rey Erenas
  • 7 R. BruguĂ© AyguadĂ©
  • 18 E. Bardeli
  • 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
  • 24 T. FernĂĄndez
  • 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
Real Betis
  • 1 Á. VallĂ©s Rosa
  • 2 H. BellerĂ­n Moruno
  • 5 M. Bartra Aregall
  • 4 Natan
  • 11 F. GarcĂ­a Torres
  • 6 F. Bernal Cruz
  • 21 M. Roca JunquĂ©
  • 7 A. dos Santos
  • 22 F. AlarcĂłn SuĂĄrez
  • 17 R. Riquelme Reche
  • 19 T. Parrott
Substitutes
  • 21 K. Etta Eyong
  • 10 C. Álvarez Rivera
  • 1 P. Cuñat Campos
  • 22 J. Toljan
  • 17 V. GarcĂ­a Raja
  • 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
  • 5 H. Sotelo
  • 27 F. CortĂ©s Gracia
  • 6 D. Requena SĂĄnchez
  • 3 I. Ndukwe
  • 33 M. Santos
  • 11 Y. Musuayi
  • 14 I. Losada Aragunde
  • 33 P. GarcĂ­a FernĂĄndez
  • 16 D. GĂłmez
  • 3 D. Llorente RĂ­os
  • 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
  • 10 A. Ezzalzouli
  • 9 J. HernĂĄndez SuĂĄrez
  • 18 N. Deossa SuĂĄrez
  • 8 P. Fornals Malla
  • 40 A. de Pablo Casado
  • 15 Á. Fidalgo FernĂĄndez
  • 31 M. GonzĂĄlez PallarĂ©s

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.

Create Account →