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La Liga

Racing Santander - Elche

08/28/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Racing Santander
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Elche
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RSELC

Racing Santander

Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.14
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04

Elche

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
+0.53
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.17
Tete Morente on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 2
    Elche: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 14)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

29%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Elche is missing key player Tete Morente, leaving only 63% of their usual goal threat available
  • Tactical focus: Racing Santander recently played counter-oriented with 42% average possession and 4.0 shots on target, while Elche averaged 2.8 shots on target
  • Mathematical model predicts an away win with a 45% probability and expects 1.48 goals for Elche compared to 1.05 for Racing Santander
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head history and home player form statistics
  • Elche shows severe defensive issues on the road with an average of 2.53 goals conceded per away match
  • The absence of Tete Morente significantly weakens the visitor's offense to 63% of seasonal goals
Overview

Racing Santander hosts Elche at the Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

La Liga match on August 28, 2026, 7:00 PM

Both teams sit in the lower third of the table with one point after two matches

Form

Racing Santander has a form of WWLDL in the last five matches

Last match resulted in a 0-1 loss against Getafe

Elche shows a form of LWDDL

Most recently suffered a heavy 0-5 defeat against FC Barcelona

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Racing Santander averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per season match

In their only home game they conceded 3.0 goals

Elche concedes an extremely high average of 2.53 goals per away match

Their away scoring average stands at 1.27 goals per game

Key Players

Facundo GonzĂĄlez holds an average rating of 7.2 at the venue

Manu Hernando impresses with an average rating of 6.76 at the venue

GermĂĄn Valera has recorded 4 goals and 5 assists for the visitors

Pedro Bigas contributed 1 goal and 3 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Julen Agirrezabala starts in goal for the hosts and kept 1 clean sheet this season

MatĂ­as Dituro has an average season rating of 7.09 and recorded 8 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

The venue history shows an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 67% of the matches at this venue

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