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La Liga08/28/2026, 05:00 PM

Racing Santander – Elche3 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Racing Santander
1.05
Total xG
2.53
Elche
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorRacing SantanderElche
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)+0.53
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.23
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.17
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)−0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)−0.14
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)−0.14
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean+0.04
Tete Morente on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Elche is missing key player Tete Morente, leaving only 63% of their usual goal threat available
  • Tactical focus: Racing Santander recently played counter-oriented with 42% average possession and 4.0 shots on target, while Elche averaged 2.8 shots on target
  • Mathematical model predicts an away win with a 45% probability and expects 1.48 goals for Elche compared to 1.05 for Racing Santander

Risks

  • Limited data availability for head-to-head history and home player form statistics
  • Elche shows severe defensive issues on the road with an average of 2.53 goals conceded per away match
  • The absence of Tete Morente significantly weakens the visitor's offense to 63% of seasonal goals

All probabilities

Result
Racing Santander25%
Draw29%
Elche45%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Racing Santander or draw55%
Elche or draw75%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
3:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Elche: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  2. Elche: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 14)

Lineups

Racing Santander 4-2-3-1 · Elche 5-4-1

Racing Santander
  • 13 J. Agirrezabala
  • 2 A. Mantilla PĂ©rez
  • 4 J. Hernando Riol
  • 16 F. GonzĂĄlez Molino
  • 17 J. Salinas Viadero
  • 23 I. MartĂ­n NĂșñez
  • 8 G. Puerta Molano
  • 11 A. MartĂ­n GarcĂ­a
  • 20 S. Canales Madrazo
  • 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
  • 21 M. Zabiri
Elche
  • 1 M. Dituro
  • 2 A. SangarĂ© TraorĂ©
  • 22 D. Affengruber
  • 23 V. Chust GarcĂ­a
  • 6 P. Bigas Rigo
  • 11 G. Karabinaite
  • 10 F. Buonanotte
  • 12 G. Villar del Fraile
  • 8 M. Aguado Pallares
  • 29 A. Houary Jeddoub
  • 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
Substitutes
  • 36 S. MartĂ­nez Montero
  • 5 P. RamĂłn Parra
  • 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
  • 9 J. Arana GĂłmez
  • 12 A. Villalibre Molina
  • 14 M. Gueye
  • 7 G. Guliashvili
  • 18 M. Prati
  • 34 D. DĂ­az Cacho
  • 1 S. Eriksson
  • 30 C. SĂĄnchez Martos
  • 38 H. Sañudo
  • 17 J. FernĂĄndez Pomares
  • 19 G. Diangana
  • 16 M. Carvalho Neto
  • 43 A. Iturbe Encabo
  • 5 F. Redondo Solari
  • 26 M. Barzic GutiĂ©rrez
  • 20 J. Morente Oliva
  • 21 L. Cepeda
  • 9 E. Ponce MartĂ­nez
  • 24 A. Osorio
  • 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
  • 30 Á. Padilla

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