La Liga
FC Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano
08/31/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
2.9
1.0
1:1
11%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
FC Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
League
The Lab
- 1FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- 2FC Barcelona: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- 3Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- 4Rayo Vallecano: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- 5FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)
- 6Rayo Vallecano: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
60%
Draw
24%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
40%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Mathematical advantage: The prediction model calculates a 60% home win probability for Barcelona
- Home strength vs away weakness: Barcelona averages 2.48 goals scored at home, while Rayo concedes 1.81 goals on average away
- Tactical dominance: Barcelona recently averaged 68% possession, exerting high control on the pitch
Risk Factors
- Fitness advantage for Rayo Vallecano with 11 days of rest compared to only 4 days for Barcelona
- FC Barcelona's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.5
- Key offensive player missing: Robert Lewandowski (14 goals, 2 assists) is not in the home team's squad
Overview
FC Barcelona hosts Rayo Vallecano at the Camp Nou
La Liga match on August 31, 2026, 8:30 PM
The hosts are currently in 4th place with 6 points from 2 games
The visitors are in 16th place with 1 point
Barcelona enters this match as favorites
Form
Barcelona's recent form across all competitions is LWLWW
The home team achieved 3 wins and suffered 2 losses
Rayo Vallecano travels with a form of WWLLD
The visitors recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their recent matches
Barcelona recently celebrated a 2-0 home win against Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano recorded a 1-1 draw against Deportivo Alavés in their last match
Statistics
Barcelona averages 2.5 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded per match this season
In home matches, their average stands at 2.48 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded
Rayo Vallecano averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per game
The visitors concede an average of 1.81 goals in away matches
Barcelona has already kept 15 clean sheets this season
Rayo Vallecano has managed to keep 12 clean sheets so far
Head-to-Head
There have been 4 head-to-head matches between these teams
Barcelona celebrated 3 wins, while Rayo Vallecano remains winless with 1 draw
The overall goal difference stands at 5:2 in favor of Barcelona
The last encounter on March 22, 2026, ended in a 1-0 home victory for Barcelona
Key Players
Lamine Yamal shines for the Catalan side with 16 goals and 11 assists this season
Raphinha has already scored 13 goals and provided 3 assists
Dani Olmo contributes 7 goals and 8 assists for Barcelona
Jorge de Frutos is the most dangerous attacker for the visitors with 10 goals and 1 assist
Sergio Camello has scored 5 goals so far this season
Ălvaro GarcĂa contributed 4 goals and 5 assists for Rayo Vallecano
Goalkeepers
Joan GarcĂa guards the goal for the Catalans and averages a 6.97 rating in his recent matches
Barcelona has kept a total of 15 clean sheets this season
On the other side, Dani CĂĄrdenas guards the goal for Rayo Vallecano
CĂĄrdenas has a strong average rating of 7.56 in his last two games
Influences
Barcelona possesses a tremendous home record with 57 goals scored and only 10 conceded in 23 home matches
The Camp Nou averages 2.8 total goals per game in recent matches
The grass pitch at the Camp Nou offers familiar conditions for the home side