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FC Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano5 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Barcelona
1.97
Total xG
2.92
Rayo Vallecano
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.61 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Robert Lewandowski not in squad (14 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Fermín López on the bench (6 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Eric García on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Isi Palazón not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Andrei Rațiu on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The prediction model calculates a 60% home win probability for Barcelona
- Home strength vs away weakness: Barcelona averages 2.48 goals scored at home, while Rayo concedes 1.81 goals on average away
- Tactical dominance: Barcelona recently averaged 68% possession, exerting high control on the pitch
Risks
- Fitness advantage for Rayo Vallecano with 11 days of rest compared to only 4 days for Barcelona
- FC Barcelona's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.5
- Key offensive player missing: Robert Lewandowski (14 goals, 2 assists) is not in the home team's squad
All probabilities
Result
FC Barcelona60%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano16%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
FC Barcelona or draw84%
Rayo Vallecano or draw40%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
5:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- FC Barcelona: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Rayo Vallecano: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)
- Rayo Vallecano: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
FC Barcelona 4-2-3-1 · Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 23 J. Koundé
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 15 A. Christensen
- 12 X. Espart Font
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 17 A. Gordon
- 11 Raphinha
Rayo Vallecano
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 6 P. Ciss
- 33 J. Vertrouwd
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 36 G. Bouare Samake
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
- 8 U. López Cabrera
- 18 Á. García Rivera
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
Substitutes
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 24 E. García
- 7 F. López Marín
- 16 Rodri
- 31 E. Aller González
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
- 28 B. Pérez
- 14 H. Tsitaishvili
- 17 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 22 P. Fernández Balboa
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 11 R. Ntekja
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 26 M. de las Sías López
- 30 A. Molina Colorado
- 31 M. Román
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