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Deportivo Alavés – Osasuna5 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Alavés
1.23
Total xG
2.16
Osasuna
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Alavés | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.71 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Toni Martínez not in squad (14 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Aimar Oroz not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup focus: Alavés averages 1.16 goals per season and meets Osasuna's fragile away defense which concedes 2.36 goals on average per game
- Tactical setup: Osasuna averaged 5.6 shots on target recently showing offensive strength, while Alavés averaged 5.0 shots on target
- Form trend: Alavés scores consistently with about 1.4 goals per game, whereas Osasuna's goal production recently slowed to 1.0 goals per game
Risks
- Osasuna concedes an average of 2.36 goals per away game
- Alavés has historically failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Osasuna
- Limited data quality regarding duel statistics in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Alavés41%
Draw32%
Osasuna26%
Double chance
Deportivo Alavés or draw74%
Osasuna or draw59%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
13%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
5:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Osasuna: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Osasuna: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')
- Deportivo Alavés: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Getafe: 2 goals (90+1', 90+4')
- Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Deportivo Alavés with Ángel Pérez starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/10 games, last 30)
- Osasuna: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Deportivo Alavés 3-5-2 · Osasuna 4-2-2-2
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 16 V. Koski
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 15 L. Boyé
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
Osasuna
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 14 R. García Santos
- 16 M. Gómez Bordonado
- 17 A. Budimir
- 9 R. García de Haro
Substitutes
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 24 M. Diallo Diallo
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 29 I. Hernández Cañas
- 20 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 2 N. Valentini
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
- 20 R. Del Castillo
- 15 D. Rico Salguero
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 21 J. Dubasin
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
- 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
- 48 R. Yeboah
- 35 U. Santos Mañeru
- 30 A. Bonel Aicua
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