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La Liga

Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna

09/06/2026, 04:30 PM

5 : 2
Expected Goals
Deportivo Alavés
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Osasuna
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

13%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
DAOSA

Deportivo Alavés

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.71
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Toni Martínez not in squad (14 goals, 3 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

Osasuna

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.24
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Aimar Oroz not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Osasuna: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Osasuna: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (80', 90+9')

  • 3
    Deportivo Alavés: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Getafe: 2 goals (90+1', 90+4')

  • 4
    Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Deportivo Alavés with Ángel Pérez starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/10 games, last 30)

  • 6
    Osasuna: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

32%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Matchup focus: Alavés averages 1.16 goals per season and meets Osasuna's fragile away defense which concedes 2.36 goals on average per game
  • Tactical setup: Osasuna averaged 5.6 shots on target recently showing offensive strength, while Alavés averaged 5.0 shots on target
  • Form trend: Alavés scores consistently with about 1.4 goals per game, whereas Osasuna's goal production recently slowed to 1.0 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Osasuna concedes an average of 2.36 goals per away game
  • Alavés has historically failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Osasuna
  • Limited data quality regarding duel statistics in recent matches
Overview

Deportivo Alavés host Osasuna at the Estadio de Mendizorroza

La Liga match on September 6, 2026, 6:30 PM

Both teams are tied in the upper half of the table with 7 points

Alavés sit in 5th place and Osasuna in 6th place

A direct duel for European spots early in the season

Form

Deportivo Alavés show solid form of WLWDW with a recent win against Villarreal

Osasuna show an upward trend of LLDWW with two consecutive wins

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 1 draw from their last five matches

Osasuna recently secured 2 wins and 1 draw

Statistics

Alavés averaged 1.16 goals scored per game across the entire season

Osasuna also averaged 1.16 goals scored per game

In home matches Alavés concede 1.14 goals on average

Osasuna have conceded 26 goals in 11 away matches, averaging 2.36 per game

Head-to-Head

In the past 4 head-to-head matches there were 3 draws and one win for Osasuna

Alavés failed to win any of these direct duels

The last encounter ended in a 2:2 draw on April 5, 2026

The overall goal difference in these matches stands at 5:8 in favor of Osasuna

Key Players

Lucas Boyé leads Alavés' attack with 11 goals this season

Antonio Blanco impresses in the hosts' midfield with 2 goals and 3 assists

Mariano Díaz showed great improvement recently with 2 goals and 2 assists in 3 games

For Osasuna Ante Budimir is the most dangerous forward with 17 goals this season

Rubén García contributed 2 goals and 5 assists so far this season

Not nominated for Alavés: Toni Martínez (14 goals, 3 assists)

Not nominated for Osasuna: Aimar Oroz (0 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Antonio Sivera is in goal for Alavés and kept 5 clean sheets this season

Sergio Herrera guarded the net for Osasuna and achieved 7 clean sheets so far

Influences

Alavés rely on their home advantage at the Estadio de Mendizorroza

The venue history shows an average of 2.8 goals per match in this stadium

Osasuna travel with a vulnerable away defense

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