Match report →
Málaga – Levante0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Málaga
1.33
Total xG
2.89
Levante
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Málaga | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.73 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 36% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive form: Levante are currently scoring more frequently, averaging 2.0 goals compared to their seasonal average of 1.4
- Tactical shooting advantage: Levante averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches, while Málaga averaged only 2.8
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors the visitors, calculating an away win probability of 41%
Risks
- Weakened Levante squad: The visitors travel with only 67% of their usual starting lineup strength available
- Vulnerable away defense: Levante concede an average of 1.94 goals per match on their travels
- Lack of offensive threat: Málaga averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Málaga31%
Draw28%
Levante41%
Double chance
Málaga or draw59%
Levante or draw69%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Levante: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Levante: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
Lineups
Málaga 4-3-3 · Levante 4-1-4-1
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
- 19 J. Díaz Espósito
Levante
- 13 M. Ryan
- 29 N. Pérez Gómez
- 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
- 2 A. Mandi
- 23 M. Sánchez De La Peña
- 20 O. Rey Erenas
- 7 R. Brugué Ayguadé
- 18 E. Bardeli
- 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
- 24 T. Fernández
- 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
Substitutes
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
- 2 J. Cajuste
- 25 J. Berrocal González
- 16 A. Tape-Kobrissa
- 1 P. Cuñat Campos
- 22 J. Toljan
- 17 V. García Raja
- 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
- 5 H. Sotelo
- 27 F. Cortés Gracia
- 6 D. Requena Sánchez
- 10 P. Ratkov
- 3 I. Ndukwe
- 33 M. Santos
- 11 Y. Musuayi
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