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La Liga

Málaga - Levante

09/06/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Málaga
1.3
Total xG
2.9
Levante
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MÁLLEV

Málaga

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.73
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)

Levante

Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.06
36% of goal output missing (only 66% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Levante: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 2
    Levante: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

28%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Offensive form: Levante are currently scoring more frequently, averaging 2.0 goals compared to their seasonal average of 1.4
  • Tactical shooting advantage: Levante averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches, while Málaga averaged only 2.8
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors the visitors, calculating an away win probability of 41%
Risk Factors
  • Weakened Levante squad: The visitors travel with only 67% of their usual starting lineup strength available
  • Vulnerable away defense: Levante concede an average of 1.94 goals per match on their travels
  • Lack of offensive threat: Málaga averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Málaga host Levante at the Estadio La Rosaleda

Match on September 6, 2026, 6:30 PM

Málaga are in 20th place with one point from three matches

Levante sit in 10th place with four points

The hosts are already under pressure after a weak start to the season

Form

Málaga's recent form is WLLDL with one win, one draw, and three losses

In their last match, they suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat against Real Madrid

Levante travel with a form of WLLDW and a record of two wins, one draw, and two losses

Levante recently celebrated a 5-2 victory against Real Betis

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Málaga scored 4 goals in 2 matches this season, averaging 2.0 goals per game

Defensively, the hosts conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match

Levante scored an average of 1.24 goals per game over 38 league matches

However, in away games, Levante concede an average of 1.94 goals

Levante's overall record stands at 47 goals scored and 61 conceded in 38 matches

Key Players

David Larrubia performed strongly at home with an average rating of 7.25

Chupe has already scored a home goal and holds a rating of 7.2 at the venue

Alfonso Herrero impresses in goal with a home rating of 7.17

For the visitors, Iván Romero has scored 7 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Jon Ander Olasagasti contributed 1 goal and 5 assists during the current campaign

Roger Brugué scored three goals in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 6.84

Goalkeepers

Alfonso Herrero guards the goal for Málaga and holds a rating of 7.17 in home matches

Mathew Ryan stands between the posts for Levante with a seasonal average of 7.13

Ryan recently improved to an average rating of 7.45 in his past matches

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio La Rosaleda

The only home game played at this venue so far ended in a 1-1 draw

That match featured 2 goals with both teams finding the back of the net

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