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La Liga

Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander

09/05/2026, 04:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Rayo Vallecano
0.9
Total xG
1.7
Racing Santander
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

20%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

13%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
RVRS

Rayo Vallecano

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Isi PalazĂłn not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)

Racing Santander

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.76
Attack strength (2.22x league average)
+1.49
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.14
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Racing Santander: 5 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 7 games)

  • 2
    Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Rayo Vallecano: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Racing Santander: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

37%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

53%

Under 1.5

47%

Over 2.5

25%

Under 2.5

75%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

63%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • Limited away attack: Racing Santander has only 0% of their usual goal threat available according to the dataset
  • Rayo Vallecano averaged 3.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Racing Santander's average of 4.0
  • The mathematical model forecasts a close contest with a 37% probability for a draw
Risk Factors
  • Rayo Vallecano's goalscoring has stalled recently at 1.2 goals per game compared to their seasonal average of 1.5
  • Racing Santander's goal production is also stalling at 1.4 goals per game against a seasonal average of 1.9
  • Limited data availability for visitor player statistics and lack of historical head-to-head matches
Overview

Rayo Vallecano (18th place, 1 point) faces Racing Santander (10th place, 4 points)

La Liga match on September 5, 2026, 6:30 PM at Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Rayo Vallecano is still searching for their first win of the season

Form

Rayo Vallecano has a form of WLLDL with a loss in their last match

The home team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent games

Racing Santander travels with a form of WLDLW and a victory in their last game

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their recent matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Rayo Vallecano averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded last season

Racing Santander average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded this season

The away team has conceded only 0.33 goals per game on the road this season

Head-to-Head

There are no recorded head-to-head matches for this fixture in the dataset

Key Players

Sergio Camello recently recorded 4 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.33

Jorge de Frutos contributes 10 goals and 1 assist this season

Álvaro García records 4 goals and 5 assists this season

Not in squad is Isi PalazĂłn with 3 goals and 3 assists

No individual player statistics available for Racing Santander

Goalkeepers

Dani CĂĄrdenas is in goal for Rayo Vallecano with a seasonal average rating of 7.54

Julen Agirrezabala guards the goal for Racing Santander

Influences

The match takes place at Estadio Municipal de Butarque

The historical average at this venue is 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 75% of previous matches at this stadium

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