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Rayo Vallecano – Racing Santander3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Rayo Vallecano
0.90
Total xG
1.72
Racing Santander
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rayo Vallecano | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.76 | |
| Attack strength (2.22x league average) | +1.49 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Isi Palazón not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Limited away attack: Racing Santander has only 0% of their usual goal threat available according to the dataset
- Rayo Vallecano averaged 3.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Racing Santander's average of 4.0
- The mathematical model forecasts a close contest with a 37% probability for a draw
Risks
- Rayo Vallecano's goalscoring has stalled recently at 1.2 goals per game compared to their seasonal average of 1.5
- Racing Santander's goal production is also stalling at 1.4 goals per game against a seasonal average of 1.9
- Limited data availability for visitor player statistics and lack of historical head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Rayo Vallecano34%
Draw37%
Racing Santander29%
Double chance
Rayo Vallecano or draw71%
Racing Santander or draw66%
No draw63%
Goals
Over 1.553%
Under 1.547%
Over 2.525%
Under 2.575%
Over 3.510%
Under 3.590%
Both teams score
Yes35%
No65%
Most likely scores
0:0
20%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
13%
2:0
7%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Santander: 5 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 7 games)
- Rayo Vallecano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Rayo Vallecano: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Racing Santander: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3 · Racing Santander 4-2-3-1
Rayo Vallecano
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 6 P. Ciss
- 17 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 8 U. López Cabrera
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
- 18 Á. García Rivera
Racing Santander
- 13 J. Agirrezabala
- 2 A. Mantilla Pérez
- 4 J. Hernando Riol
- 16 F. González Molino
- 17 J. Salinas Viadero
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 18 M. Prati
- 15 P. García Fernández
- 20 S. Canales Madrazo
- 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
- 21 M. Zabiri
Substitutes
- 14 H. Tsitaishvili
- 22 P. Fernández Balboa
- 15 M. Sadick Aliu
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 11 R. Ntekja
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 26 M. de las Sías López
- 37 R. Belaid Khellil
- 25 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 36 G. Bouare Samake
- 24 J. Belocian
- 8 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 5 P. Ramón Parra
- 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
- 9 J. Arana Gómez
- 12 A. Villalibre Molina
- 14 M. Gueye
- 7 G. Guliashvili
- 3 A. Martín Caricol
- 22 P. de Jesus Gomes
- 1 S. Eriksson
- 38 H. Sañudo
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