Match report →
Valencia – FC Barcelona0 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Valencia
1.02
Total xG
2.53
FC Barcelona
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Valencia | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.90 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| Attack strength (1.57x league average) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.6 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| Hugo Duro on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Luis Rioja not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Guido Rodríguez not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Marc Bernal on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: FC Barcelona averaged 7.8 shots on target and 66% possession in recent matches
- Offensive trend: FC Barcelona currently scores more frequently (3.2 goals per game) than their season average (2.6)
- Individual form: Raphinha averages 1.67 goals per 90 minutes in recent matches
Risks
- Hugo Duro, Luis Rioja, Guido Rodríguez are missing, only 59% of the usual goal threat is available
- Defensive instability: Valencia conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match in recent games
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Valencia24%
Draw29%
FC Barcelona47%
Double chance
Valencia or draw53%
FC Barcelona or draw76%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
2:2
5%
0:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.2 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)
- Valencia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Valencia: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Valencia 5-4-1 · FC Barcelona 4-3-3
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 22 A. Martinez
- 4 M. Diakhaby
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 15 A. Dieng
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 7 A. Danjuma
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 24 E. García
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 12 X. Espart Font
- 7 F. López Marín
- 16 Rodri
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 11 Raphinha
- 17 A. Gordon
Substitutes
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 9 H. Duro
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 36 I. Córdoba Sánchez
- 10 H. Elliot
- 37 A. Blazquez Labraca
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 39 R. Sato
- 38 J. Durá i Soler
- 33 Aaron Mayol
- 31 Rodrigo Gamón
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 23 J. Koundé
- 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 15 A. Christensen
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
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