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La Liga

Valencia - FC Barcelona

09/06/2026, 02:15 PM

0 : 5
Expected Goals
Valencia
1.0
Total xG
2.5
FC Barcelona
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
VALFB

Valencia

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.90
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.36
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Hugo Duro on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists)
Luis Rioja not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)
Guido RodrĂ­guez not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 59% available)

FC Barcelona

Attack strength (1.57x league average)
+0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (3.2 vs 2.6 season average)
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.05
Marc Bernal on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)

  • 2
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.2 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)

  • 4
    Valencia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 5
    Valencia: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

29%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: FC Barcelona averaged 7.8 shots on target and 66% possession in recent matches
  • Offensive trend: FC Barcelona currently scores more frequently (3.2 goals per game) than their season average (2.6)
  • Individual form: Raphinha averages 1.67 goals per 90 minutes in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Hugo Duro, Luis Rioja, Guido RodrĂ­guez are missing, only 59% of the usual goal threat is available
  • Defensive instability: Valencia conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match in recent games
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

Valencia host FC Barcelona at the Estadio de Mestalla

La Liga match on September 6, 2026, 3:15 PM

The league leaders face the winless home team currently in 18th place

Form

Valencia struggle with only one point from three games and a form of WWDLL

Barcelona arrive with a perfect record of three wins and a form of WLWWW

The visitors won their last three league games in a row

Statistics

Barcelona shined last season with an average of 2.50 goals scored per match

Valencia averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded

On the road Barcelona averaged 2.53 goals scored last season

Head-to-Head

Five head-to-head matches show a clear dominance of Barcelona with four wins

The goal difference in these matches is 21:5 in favor of the Catalans

However the last meeting in May 2026 ended in a 3:1 home victory for Valencia

Key Players

Valencia rely on Javi Guerra with four goals and Arnaut Danjuma with three goals

Filip Ugrinic supports the midfield with three season assists

Barcelona are led by Lamine Yamal with 16 goals and Raphinha with 13 goals

Goalkeepers

Stole Dimitrievski guards the goal for Valencia with a declining form trend

Joan GarcĂ­a starts in goal for FC Barcelona

Both goalkeepers show a downward trend in their recent match ratings

Influences

The match will be played on a natural grass surface

Historically Mestalla matches average 1.8 goals per game

The model calculates a 51% probability of both teams scoring

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